Will the Speaker of the House visit Taiwan?
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Mar 6, 3:45am: Will the next Speaker of the House visit Taiwan? → Will the Speaker of the House visit Taiwan?

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sold Ṁ451 of YES

My reading of the California meeting is that Tsai Ing-wen literally begged McCarthy not to come at least before the presidential election in Taiwan next year. After expending so much effort to get Congress to formally endorse such visits to Taiwan, this is a dramatic change of tone from Taipei. Xi Jinping has, as of yesterday, shed all of the people holding him back from taking extremely bold actions. Yesterday's announcement of the brokered detente between the Saudis and Iranians was a geopolitical coup. Taiwan may actually be in play before the next US presidential election. I think I am changing my mind on a lot of things related to China after watching Xi at the most recent "two sessions" meeting. He had swagger. He was casually sipping tea while engaging in small talk with Wang Huning and Li Qiang. It's just - different. Unsettlingly so...

predicts NO

https://www.ft.com/content/69b627fc-ab7f-4b19-9ea3-5c308d81c6ef

US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Taiwan’s president Tsai Ing-wen plan to meet in California rather than Taipei in a bid to avoid an aggressive response from Beijing to a meeting on the island.

predicts YES

@Gabrielle Dude we are in month 2 of 24. This is the first meeting. Pelosi hosted Tsai Ing-wen in California and DC before going to Taiwan also. This is the only truly bipartisan issue in the House, the speaker from now until forever will visit Taiwan. Thanks for the easy mana.

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@BTE What happens if McCarthy is removed as Speaker of the House? What if he is removed, then later re-instated, still in this same congress (before 2025)?

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@Gabrielle I didn't mention McCarthy purposely. The Speaker, whomever it may be, though I would be real money McCarthy is going and taking a bunch of Republicans and Democrats with him.

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@BTE So to be clear, you’re saying that if he was removed and then reinstated, McCarthy would be a different Speaker of the House, and this would resolve no?

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@Gabrielle No dude. I M saying there is a question about McCarthy, this is not it. It does not matter who it is for this question to resolve.

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@Gabrielle There could be 15 speakers. Only one of them has to visit Taiwan for this to resolve YES. If none at end of 118th Congress then it resolves NO.

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@BTE Ah okay, I understood it opposite. So if he’s replaced with someone else in this same Congress, it’s the same “Speaker of the House”, even though it’s someone else. Thanks for clarifying!

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Several GOP congressmen have already said they are going to Taiwan in a few weeks.

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I don’t follow US politics. Can someone explain why this seems so likely?

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@MaxG I used to work for a Speaker years ago so my take is somewhat that of an insider. Just politically speaking Nancy did it and the CCP was triggered hilariously so now every Speaker will do it for the foreseeable future or risk their party looking weaker than Nancy (they still are regardless) and the CCP looking like their flexing during her visit somehow influenced our support of Taiwan (it very much did not). Plus McCarthy was butt hurt Nancy didn't invite him and he has already promised not only to visit himself, but he wants to bring dozens of members of both parties with him.

Personally I think Apple should just buy TSMC and then the whole idea of who Taiwan belongs to is settled, it would be Tim Cook’s. I trust him so much more than any political figure.

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@BTE Thanks! I think what I don't get is why US politicians from both parties are so interested in triggering the CCP by visiting Taiwan. I don't understand the foreign relations reasoning behind it.

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@MaxG Where are you from? Not America I take it? It is hard to explain if you are of a different mindset, but Americans of all political persuasions DO NOT like being told they can't do something. Our political system was founded in defiance and has pretty much maintained that tone ever since. Telling us we can't almost guarantees we will.

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@BTE Interesting! Yeah, i am German. Thx for the explanation of your viewpoint.

in 2023?

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@kolotom99 No, anytime during the two year term.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@BTE The closing date is current January 2024, but you probably want it to be January 2025, right?

predicts YES

@Gabrielle Definitely do! Good catch! Thanks!!

bought Ṁ10 of YES

This is the only thing I can think of that is almost guaranteed to happen no matter which party holds the Speakership now that Nancy has shown how much it annoys the CCP. America antagonizes better (or maybe it's worse?) than anyone.