BTE avatar
BTE
closes Jan 4, 2024
Will the next Speaker of the House visit Taiwan?
83%
chance

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BTE avatar
BTEis predicting YES at 75%

Several GOP congressmen have already said they are going to Taiwan in a few weeks.

MaxG avatar
MaxGis predicting NO at 85%

I don’t follow US politics. Can someone explain why this seems so likely?

BTE avatar
BTEis predicting YES at 85%

@MaxG I used to work for a Speaker years ago so my take is somewhat that of an insider. Just politically speaking Nancy did it and the CCP was triggered hilariously so now every Speaker will do it for the foreseeable future or risk their party looking weaker than Nancy (they still are regardless) and the CCP looking like their flexing during her visit somehow influenced our support of Taiwan (it very much did not). Plus McCarthy was butt hurt Nancy didn't invite him and he has already promised not only to visit himself, but he wants to bring dozens of members of both parties with him.

Personally I think Apple should just buy TSMC and then the whole idea of who Taiwan belongs to is settled, it would be Tim Cook’s. I trust him so much more than any political figure.

MaxG avatar
MaxGis predicting NO at 75%

@BTE Thanks! I think what I don't get is why US politicians from both parties are so interested in triggering the CCP by visiting Taiwan. I don't understand the foreign relations reasoning behind it.

BTE avatar
BTEis predicting YES at 75%

@MaxG Where are you from? Not America I take it? It is hard to explain if you are of a different mindset, but Americans of all political persuasions DO NOT like being told they can't do something. Our political system was founded in defiance and has pretty much maintained that tone ever since. Telling us we can't almost guarantees we will.

MaxG avatar
MaxGis predicting NO at 89%

@BTE Interesting! Yeah, i am German. Thx for the explanation of your viewpoint.

itsTomekK avatar
Tomek K 🟡

in 2023?

BTE avatar
BTEis predicting YES at 43%

@kolotom99 No, anytime during the two year term.

BTE avatar
BTEbought Ṁ10 of YES

This is the only thing I can think of that is almost guaranteed to happen no matter which party holds the Speakership now that Nancy has shown how much it annoys the CCP. America antagonizes better (or maybe it's worse?) than anyone.