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Only a 12% chance that UFOs are in any sense "real", and then only a 5% chance that, if real, they're of non-human origin implies that this market should be at <1%. (Probably significantly less, given the short time frame in which they can be discovered.)

intact?

Regrettably selling my shares here not because I expect any of this to be confirmed but because I do see another wave of UFO mania coming due to all this and I like winning in Leagues.

https://autos.yahoo.com/amphtml/u-recovered-intact-partially-intact-190000314.html

U.S. Recovered ‘Intact And Partially Intact Vehicles’ Of Non-Human Origin: Whistleblower

An absolutely bonkers report out Monday from the news outlet Debrief details the efforts of a former U.S. intelligence agent to bring to light an 80-plus-year cover up about the truth about UFOs or, as they are now known, Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena.

I don’t know if any of y’all saw or not but the DoD has EXPLICITLY PERMITTED AND NOT DENIED the whistleblower claims of a recovered non terrestrial vehicle by a private defense contractor. I had to reread it 10 times but I am pretty sure the US government has all but fully acknowledged everything he has said which is INSANE!!!

@BTE I agree that it does feel insane, and I'm slightly updating upwards, but I still think it's very unlikely there will be an official DoD confirmation that those UAPs are "not of terrestrial origin".

That said, even if there will be such confirmation, it doesn't mean that they are of terrestrial origin. Idk what my Posterior probability for that should be, given that my Prior is so miniscule. If this market resolves YES I will be very confused, for sure.

@MayMeta What the first whistleblower provided congress is apparently undeniable. Gary Nolan of Stanford said 100 percent probability last week and he is the MOST CREDIBLE scientist in the world on this subject. I will definitely wait for a firm confirmation rather than insinuation but the newly signed Defense Authorization bill created unprecedented whistleblower protections for these people specifically so there is no such thing as top secret on this topic anymore, they are all free to say anything they want about their work without any fear of prosecution or harassment!!!! Like what?!?!?

@BTE Gary Nolan seems to say he hasn't seen any objects, and points to the videos as the best evidence (he/we) have. On the basis of the videos, I would not be at 100%