Will Russia control Transnistria by the end of 2024?
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predicts NO

@BTE So are we talking military control, administrative control, (legally enacted) claims that Transnistria ought to be considered a Russian territory?

E.g. would you consider Russia to control:

  • Transnistria now (maybe military?? but no legal claim, & I assume distinct administration),

  • Crimea (all 3),

  • Luhansk Oblast (all 3, iiuc military incomplete but almost entire),

  • Kherson Oblast (all 3, military/administrative partial at like 60% & dubiously stable)

What defines control? Does Russia currently control Transnistria under this definition?

predicts YES

@Ouroboros I meant annex. At the time it wasn’t a word used to frivolously but now everything is being annexed. Le sigh.