Will Russia attempt an attack on Starlink satellites using kinetic weapons in 2022?

closes Jan 1, 2023

chance

Question resolves YES if Starlink satellites are targeted by Russian kinetic weapons. Does not include a cyber attack that disables or otherwise compromises, the intent must be to physically destroy the satellite(s).

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BTE

Will Russia attempt an attack on Starlink satellites using kinetic weapons in 2022?

BTE

bought Ṁ10 of YES

This seems more likely to me than a tactical nuclear attack. I really don't think Putin could give a damn about causing a space debris catastrophe, certainly it would be harder to retaliate against, especially if against Starlink and not CIA or DoD satellites.

Martin Randall

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@BTE Easy to retaliate, NATO can trigger article five.

https://www.defensenews.com/smr/nato-priorities/2021/06/14/nato-says-attack-in-space-could-trigger-mutual-defense-clause/

So this actually gives NATO more options for retaliation than a nuclear strike on Ukraine.

BTE

is predicting YES at 7%

@MartinRandall Thanks for sharing! Even more interesting since this was from before the invasion.

Jack

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Russia warned "it could target Western commercial satellites used for military purposes in support of Ukraine." https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-crimea-europe-government-and-politics-990aeb315f9de76ab32ff3674c6c660c

Matt P

sold Ṁ344 of NO

Cashing out because hell yeah I'll take 98% profit in exchange for freeing up the mana through the end of the year.

Sjlver

bought Ṁ50 of NO

That would have such high collateral damage (think Kessler Syndrome) that it seems really unlikely. I'm also not aware of any other satellites being the target of such attacks... Are there examples?

Olivia

is predicting NO at 11%

@Sjlver tests, yes, but I am unaware of any actual kinetic action against a foreign satellite

Martin Randall

bought Ṁ1 of YES

@Sjlver Putin is willing to weaponize world famine, I'm not sure he'd care.

BTE

@Sjlver No such thing as a test when it comes to blowing up satellites. And yes, Russia has done it to one of their own spy satellites to take it out of service. The most likely collateral damage are all the other Starlink satellites in the constellation, which feels to me more like the intended outcome than collateral damage.

Sjlver

is predicting NO at 7%

@BTE Well, there's more collateral damage to it than that... it would probably make a big chunk of low-earth orbit unusable for years: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome

BTE

@Sjlver https://www.justsecurity.org/79320/the-threat-from-outer-space-russia-tests-kinetic-da-asat-weapon/

littlebubulle

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Would a very poor attempt at targeting those satellites count as YES? I mean, they could launch a missile they know will miss the target up there for propganda purposes.