Will Russia attempt an attack on Starlink satellites using kinetic weapons in 2022?
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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Question resolves YES if Starlink satellites are targeted by Russian kinetic weapons. Does not include a cyber attack that disables or otherwise compromises, the intent must be to physically destroy the satellite(s).

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Will Russia attempt an attack on Starlink satellites using kinetic weapons in 2022?

This seems more likely to me than a tactical nuclear attack. I really don't think Putin could give a damn about causing a space debris catastrophe, certainly it would be harder to retaliate against, especially if against Starlink and not CIA or DoD satellites.

@BTE Easy to retaliate, NATO can trigger article five.

https://www.defensenews.com/smr/nato-priorities/2021/06/14/nato-says-attack-in-space-could-trigger-mutual-defense-clause/

So this actually gives NATO more options for retaliation than a nuclear strike on Ukraine.

predictedYES

@MartinRandall Thanks for sharing! Even more interesting since this was from before the invasion.

Russia warned "it could target Western commercial satellites used for military purposes in support of Ukraine." https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-crimea-europe-government-and-politics-990aeb315f9de76ab32ff3674c6c660c

Cashing out because hell yeah I'll take 98% profit in exchange for freeing up the mana through the end of the year.
That would have such high collateral damage (think Kessler Syndrome) that it seems really unlikely. I'm also not aware of any other satellites being the target of such attacks... Are there examples?
predictedNO
@Sjlver tests, yes, but I am unaware of any actual kinetic action against a foreign satellite
@Sjlver Putin is willing to weaponize world famine, I'm not sure he'd care.
@Sjlver No such thing as a test when it comes to blowing up satellites. And yes, Russia has done it to one of their own spy satellites to take it out of service. The most likely collateral damage are all the other Starlink satellites in the constellation, which feels to me more like the intended outcome than collateral damage.
predictedNO
@BTE Well, there's more collateral damage to it than that... it would probably make a big chunk of low-earth orbit unusable for years: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome
@Sjlver https://www.justsecurity.org/79320/the-threat-from-outer-space-russia-tests-kinetic-da-asat-weapon/
Would a very poor attempt at targeting those satellites count as YES? I mean, they could launch a missile they know will miss the target up there for propganda purposes.
@littlebubulle yes. This is about the attempt. I will add a question about whether or not it successful.
@BTE changing for yes then

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