Resolves YES if Warnock is reelected to the Senate. Resolves NO if not.
Close date updated to 2022-12-06 11:59 pm
Nov 20, 11:52pm: Will Rafael Warnock win the Senate seat in Geogia? → Will Rafael Warnock win the Senate seat in Georgia?
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Warnock wins - called by AP: https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-walker-warnock-runoff-3d4e4d1ab1760792454e1cbd618ce332
NYT now predicting Warnock. Seems likely it will still go to a runoff
I think this market is way too low. Warnock is up by 3.7% in 538 polling average and GA polling has been closer than that recently. It looks like 538s vote forecast adjusts towards Walker by 2.1%. When I look at OH, they adjust by 3.8%, but when I look up recent results, the differences are much bigger in OH than GA.
Not sure what's going into 538's model but I think they are missing something in the differences between states in accuracy of polling
@BoltonBailey I can't understand why the outlier on the Walker side with him winning 63 percent wasn't thrown out, but name recognition like his in that state is matched by like Chipper Jones maybe, and that is the key to politics these days...