Will Peter Thiel ever be a candidate for President of the United States? | Manifold

Will Peter Thiel ever be a candidate for President of the United States?

61

1kṀ8669

2032

6%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves YES if Thiel announces and files paperwork launching a formal campaign for the White House.

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Lmao https://twitter.com/SpecialPuppy1/status/1592322083228647424?s=20&t=rPCpgJ31ov7sk1-vUv9QNw

I am thinking about resolving this N/A. What does everyone else think about that?

Outright transfer of wealth from the traders here (130 bets placed) to you who bought all the YES in the 30s 🤔

@Gigacasting I have lost -$414 on this market.

@Gigacasting Oh I see, I don't lose anymore that if I resolve N/A and that would be a dick move. Right?

@BTE seems like a bit of a breach of trust. Questions should mean what they say. The answer is *probably* no, but a constitutional amendment *could* happen. Most honest resolution is to just leave the question open until the close date.

@MattP I was just thinking about the possibility of an amendment that changed that. It is close to zero, but who knows I guess. I suppose if JD Vance ever runs for president it would effectively be like Thiel running by proxy...

He's not a natural born US citizen and isn't eligible for the presidency

@KevinKwok thanks for letting me know that. Never even occurred to me.

predictedYES 2y

If Obama can afford a fake birth certificate (cost: https://www.nbcnews.com/usnews/health-director-who-approved-obama-birth-certificate-dies-plane-crash-2d11732106), certainly Peter can 🤔

predictedNO 2y

@Gigacasting Sad to see people believe that racist bullshit still

Trying the republican nomination count?

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