Will Nikki Haley win any state in the 2024 GOP primaries?
99
869
1.2K
resolved Mar 6
Resolved
YES

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ1,615
2Ṁ1,380
3Ṁ1,111
4Ṁ590
5Ṁ504
Sort by:

Resolve? CNN says she wins

What happened?

bought Ṁ70 YES

@BTE vermont hippies love haley

@SemioticRivalry Oh and they have an open primary too I believe.

Does Washington D.C. count? Please clarify

bought Ṁ60 YES

@mint why shouldn't Washington DC count?

@AmmonLam It's not a state...

@AmmonLam its not a state

bought Ṁ100 YES

@SemioticRivalry Nevada is though…

bought Ṁ350 NO

@BTE ok but she lost the race in nevada that actually counted for delegates, and there's like ten other markets that are essentially the same question that aren't counting that

@SemioticRivalry do you want to go with the spirit of the market or the letter of the market?
either way one of nevada or DC would counted as Yes

@AmmonLam absolutely not, the general population is well aware that DC isn't a state, and neither are the US territory primaries

Yeah I don't think any other markets are counting this DC win as a state, would be weird for just this market to do so.

@SemioticRivalry DC definitely NO.

@SemioticRivalry Caucus shouldn’t really make a difference. Why did they have both, I don’t recall?

@SemioticRivalry i did say below that I was using primary to be interchangeable with caucus. Which really doesn’t make much sense. I kinda think it shouldn’t matter if there is a caucus though because they still held the primary. Caucus doesn’t involve voting and in fact you can change your mind multiple times while caucusing so really they aren’t apples to apples.

@BTE The state party decided that the caucus is the one that actually counts. State law requires them to also hold a primary, but it's completely meaningless.

I think to “win” a state means to win a majority of delegates, regardless of popular vote. So Nevada’s primary wouldn’t count because it was not delegate binding.

For the specific contests:

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Nikki Haley is almost certain to win the Nevada primary, which has the following candidates:

Nevada notably has both a primary and a caucus and Trump, DeSantis, Vivek, Christie are only in the caucus, while Haley is only in the primary.

predicted NO

@mattyb @BTE should clarify whether a non binding beauty contest counts. There have been cases where Bernie won a state’s caucus and then Clinton won the primary, and ultimately the delegates, which was reported as a Clinton win. Here only the caucus counts for delegate allocation. https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P24/NV-R#0319

predicted YES

@BTE What's the resolution here?

predicted NO

@EricBurns I was using primary to be interchangeable with caucus.

Jesus christ the cover image is nightmare fuel lmao