Will Joe Biden suffer a stroke while in office?
Global Macro
51
166
Ṁ549
2025
5%
chance

Resolves YES if Joe Biden suffers a stroke during the remainder of his first term in office. Resolves NO if not.

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bought Ṁ25 of NO

3% base rate, discounted by everything being covered up by the media ~1%

bought Ṁ5 of NO

Closer to 1.5%/yr (pre-vax)

bought Ṁ20 of YES

One of the main side effects of Paxlovid, taken by the president when he tested positive for covid, is increased risk for heart attack or stroke. Risk is even greater for Biden because his doctor suspended use of his typical heart meds because of risks related to Covid. So over the last month Biden's risks for blood clots, heart attack and stroke all spiked.

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