Resolves YES if JD Vance defeats Tim Ryan in 2022 Ohio Senate race.
Aug 10, 9:24pm:
Close date updated to 2022-11-08 11:59 pm
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GOP conspiracies are going to directly undermine their momentum and cause thousands to be self-disenfranchised. The insanity of telling people incorrect procedures to avoid voting machine fraud or whatever other crazy things makes me think the actual objective is to lose on purpose when they are supposed to win so they can use it as a pretext for violent insurrection. If JD Vance loses in Ohio it almost certainly will lead to him throwing a temper tantrum of epic proportions. I am very concerned that no matter the outcome this election is going to end very badly for the country.
@BTE People vote on inflation, etc Don't think anything else matters.
Base rates say party in power loses if economy is bad, that's what you should bet on.
@WieDan I agree with you, which is why they should definitely win, but telling people incorrect voting procedures on purpose to protect against imaginary fraud is going to be a serious problem. If only 50,000 Republicans in Ohio believe that nonsense it could be the difference between winning and losing. I wasn't previously aware of this.
@WieDan https://www.10tv.com/article/news/politics/elections/larose-precincts-cant-take-absentee-ballots/530-67cd8d6b-cb3a-4316-ab92-506f1354d08c This is the story I was referencing in my comment. Forgot to add the link.
@BTE That story is a bad spin on the differences between different state laws. Ohio has a unique requirement and that was a national group's advice.
"Republican Secretary of State Frank LaRose said those voters who heed advice from a prominent national group of Republican election deniers and hold onto their paper ballots until Nov. 8 must deliver them to their county board of elections office. Poll workers at precinct-level voting locations cannot accept them, he said."
For sure
@Conflux Change the 538 model and it's a toss up. Only one 538 model is that ridiculous. And he is running by far the worst campaign in the country. I am glad you are so confident though, easy money.
@BTE Sure, you can remove information from the FiveThirtyEight model to make it polls-only, but that will decrease accuracy. Taking into account fundamentals, fundraising, expert forecasts, etc. does increase predictive accuracy in the long term! Even though the national environment has been looking bluer in the last few weeks, I think this is reasonably likely to change with whatever new news stories are in the spotlight in the coming months. And Ryan winning would require him to outperform Biden 2020 by 8 percentage points in a midterm year, which is challenging even if Vance is running a terrible campaign.
@Conflux As of 8/11 FiveThirtyEight puts Ryan 4.5 points ahead of Vance on a separate page that averages and weights polling data. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/