To be clear, this is asking about the state of the law after appeals have been exhausted? So if a district courts rules that the 13th Amendment protects abortion, and that decision is appealed and overturned by the circuit court, then this market should still resolve 'no', correct?

@RiverBellamy No this is about any federal court restoring abortion rights. It will resolve YES if it happens and I will create a new question at that time about an appeal.

@RiverBellamy And the final appeal would be the Supreme Court, not the circuit court.

The supreme court only hears about 1% of the cases people ask it to, so the final appeal would most likely be the circuit court. It is difficult to imagine any circuit court being dumb enough to protect abortion under any part of the constitution, so why would the supreme court bother to spend time on it?

Also, a district court cannot create precedent that is binding on anyone, so to say that a district court "restored" any rights is just not how language works.

It's also not very interesting whether some wacky district judge does something crazy like this. Who cares? It's not going to be a winning legal argument whether one lone judge buys into it or not.

In short, please be more careful, or learn a little more about the domain, before creating markets. This one is just dumb.

I just lost 15 mana because you don't understand how courts work well enough to properly word a question. I hope you are proud of yourself. I'm never betting in any of your markets again.

@RiverBellamy I would have said it dumb for the Supreme Court to take away abortion rights when not a single person capable of bearing a child has ever lived in a world without those rights. District courts do stupid things all the time.

I am stupid, so please explain why a judge cannot rule that restrictions to abortion are a violation of the 13th amendment?

@BTE Of course a judge can write that in an opinion, my point is that even if a district court does write that in an opinion, no other judge has to follow it. Any district court (including their own) is free to rule the other way the next day. Only circuit courts and the supreme court create binding precedent. This is law 101. If I have to explain this to you, then you should not be creating markets about legal questions. Please just stop.

Dude, I didn’t go to law school. You could have just helped me understand instead of being an asshole and ridiculing me for being stupid. I am not myopic and really just want to get it right.

@BTE Then leave the business of making markets about legal questions to people who did go to law school. This isn't a discussion forum to ask questions in areas you aren't qualified in. Creating markets where you don't know the basics of the subject matter just screws up the dynamics for those of us who do have some expertise in the topic. You made yourself the asshole by creating a bad market in an area that you don't know.

@RiverBellamy And nobody forced you to sell, so you lost on your own accord. All you had to do was wait a bit for someone who understands these things to come along and put you back into the money. How do you make any profit on here unless there are people willing to be wrong??

@RiverBellamy You obviously don't get the point of this site. I am happy to update the resolution criteria with input of experts. But I am going to continue making markets about whatever the fuck I want and you are free to not bet on them or MAKE YOUR OWN ALTERNATIVE. You are also free to be an asshole.

@RiverBellamy ask questions before buying things. If you're such a law talkin' guy maybe you have heard the phrase "caveat emptor"?

@RiverBellamy If I could still tip I would give you back the 15 mana you lost.

@ForrestTaylor Pretty sure they didn’t expect to get schooled like that! Very nicely done!!!

@RiverBellamy So can you explain to me why so many people seem to think this District court judge in Texas is going to ban one of the two drugs used for chemical abortions nationwide this week? I mean, if you are correct, everybody is losing there mind over nothing, right? /www.texastribune.org/2023/02/05/mifepristone-lawsuit-texas/

If one is looking for a constitutional defense of abortion the 9th Amendment is much stronger.