BTE avatar
closes Jan 1, 2024
Will Elon Musk make a deal with Trump to create content exclusively for Twitter?
17%
chance

Trump currently has an exclusive deal with truth social and has so far indicated he intends to honor it, at least for now. What will Elon do to entice Trump when he is desperate? Trump could have a blast emasculating Musk. I think he will make him acquire truth social maybe.?

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DanielKilian avatar

I feel as though this might be a deal made behind closed doors. But I could definitely see this happening.

BTE avatar

@DanielKilian Private company now so it's totally possible deals will be done the world never sees. GREAT POINT!!

DanielKilian avatar

@BTE Now we have a question that may resolve as NO due to time constraints. But we could have new information as time goes on. So, how would manifold Markets resolve that type of issue. I hope they don't ding the market creator. (Then again? Seems like prediction markets have been around for a while, so someone must have already found a good way to solve these instances.

BTE avatar

@DanielKilian Its totally up to me!! I am the god of my markets!! LOL!! I have several questions that are open ended, such as the following. I was thinking about leaving this question to be open as long as Elon owns/controls Twitter. What do you think of that?

DanielKilian avatar

@BTE I really like the 'it's up to me' mentality. It makes it so people are incentivised to let you know the outcome, it seems.

BTE avatar

@DanielKilian I think that is part of the core genius of this site. Empowering every user to become a market maker and establish a track record of trustworthy resolutions and a network of trusted information sources. When I first started making markets I was a little lazy about my resolution criteria and making sure I didn't prematurely resolve a market or ignorantly mis-resolve. So I started engaging the community, specifically the traders with skin in the game on each market, to come to consensus on resolution criteria and crowdsource. @MattP got me to focus on the epistemics of market making and it helped me really appreciate the unique value of Manifold. I spend a lot of my time thinking about trustworthiness, mostly in the context of AI, and bottom up approaches are always optimal. Manifold is a case study in a bottom up approach to trustworthiness.