Will Donald Trump smile in his mugshot if he is charged for a crime before he dies? | Manifold Markets

Brian T. Edwards

closes Aug 18, 2030

Trial of the Century

Will Donald Trump smile in his mugshot if he is charged for a crime before he dies?

37%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves YES if DJT is clearly smiling in his first official mugshot. Resolves NO if he is decidedly not smiling.

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Al Quinnis predicting NO at 36%

This is my prediction

Al Quinnbought Ṁ10 of NO

This is a great question, though I'm still confused what Trump is even potentially in trouble for; as Nixon said: Well, when the president does it, that means that it is not illegal

@DrP I like this one better.

Brian T. Edwards

These are official not smiling references

Brian T. Edwards

Example of nervous Trump smile.

Brian T. Edwards

Official reference for DJT smiling.

higherLEVELING sold Ṁ35 YES from 40% to 37%

Eugger bought Ṁ19 NO from 42% to 40%

Eugger bought Ṁ1 NO at 42%

Eugger bought Ṁ1 NO at 42%

Eugger bought Ṁ1 NO at 42%

cloe bought Ṁ10 NO at 42%

Lachlan Munro bought Ṁ10 YES from 41% to 42%

Patrick Par Posnip bought Ṁ20 NO from 43% to 41%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ48/Ṁ55 NO at 43% (cancelled)

Brian T. Edwards bought Ṁ20 YES from 45% to 47%

Brian T. Edwards bought Ṁ35 YES from 41% to 45%

Brian T. Edwards bought Ṁ45 YES from 36% to 41%

Code & Solder bought Ṁ10 YES from 35% to 36%

eulerphi bought Ṁ30 NO from 37% to 35%

Lavern Mast bought Ṁ30 NO from 39% to 37%

higherLEVELING bought Ṁ25 YES from 36% to 39%

Odoacre bought Ṁ10 NO from 37% to 36%

Charlie bought Ṁ30 NO from 39% to 37%

higherLEVELING bought Ṁ10 YES from 38% to 39%

jessica goehring bought Ṁ10 NO from 39% to 38%

Peter Bennett bought Ṁ40 NO from 43% to 39%

Al Quinn bought Ṁ10 NO from 45% to 43%

Reynolds bought Ṁ10 YES from 43% to 45%

Xi Baba sold Ṁ10 YES from 45% to 43%

Xi Baba bought Ṁ10 YES from 43% to 45%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ23/Ṁ100 YES at 43% (cancelled)

Douglas Forslund bought Ṁ75 NO from 49% to 39%

Deepvail sold Ṁ10 YES from 51% to 49%

Deepvail bought Ṁ10 YES from 49% to 51%

HoosierMana sold Ṁ10 YES from 51% to 49%

HoosierMana bought Ṁ10 YES from 49% to 51%

Xi Jinping sold Ṁ10 YES from 51% to 49%

Xi Jinping bought Ṁ10 YES from 49% to 51%

cos sold Ṁ14 NO from 46% to 49%

Deepvail sold Ṁ10 NO from 45% to 46%

Deepvail bought Ṁ10 NO from 46% to 45%

Andrew G bought Ṁ10 NO from 49% to 46%

bagelman bought Ṁ10 NO from 51% to 49%

Daniel Phelps bought Ṁ10 YES from 48% to 51%

Isaac Butcher bought Ṁ10 YES from 45% to 48%

cos created limit order for Ṁ12 YES at 42% (cancelled)

Sophia Laird bought Ṁ10 YES from 44% to 45%

Brian T. Edwards sold Ṁ4 NO from 43% to 44%

VelocityBot sold Ṁ2 NO from 42% to 43%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot created limit order for Ṁ100 YES at 42% (cancelled)

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ100 YES at 42% (cancelled)

eulerphi bought Ṁ10 NO from 45% to 41%

Annalise Norling bought Ṁ10 YES from 42% to 45%

VelocityBot filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ7 NO at 42% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ3 NO at 43% (cancelled)

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