Will 25 million Americans get one of the updated mRNA Covid vaccines by the end of 2022?

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resolved Nov 4

Resolved

YES

ALL

Both Moderna and Pfizer had their updated boosters approved by the FDA this week. This question resolves YES if combined these two updated vaccines are administered to 25 million Americans by the end of 2022. Resolves NO if not.

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26.30M already, should resolve to YES https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-people-booster-percent-pop5

@egroj Thanks! Excellent resource.

"About 14.8 million people, or fewer than 7% of people eligible for the shot, got the updated booster as of Oct. 12, according to the CDC."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/many-americans-ignore-covid-boosters-as-winter-variants-loom-11666004403?st=twpf1na0zvsaiyl&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

@jorge Not a bad start. I could see this definitely getting to 25 million, especially as case numbers grow heading into winter.

@jorge That is almost 15 million in approximately one month since Emergency Authorization, correct?

@BTE yes, I agree.

predictedYES

@BTE I think since the beginning of September so more than one month. This is the official CDC site to track the number: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-people-additional-dose-totalpop

First three weeks: 4.4 million (https://www.wsj.com/articles/some-who-rushed-to-covid-19-vaccine-hold-off-on-boosters-11663856710?st=k93pa51agtjswuy&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink), so a rate of 1.46 M per week. 14 weeks until the end of 2022, at the same rate would be 24.93 M... very close.

It will ultimately depend on Covid infections, if it goes up substantially people would be more motivated to get the booster. Also on how bad influenza is this year, and how fast the influenza peak occurs, because that would lead more people to get vaccinated for influenza and likely get the Covid booster too on the same appointment.

Related:

predictedYES

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For reference, 25 million people is 7.5% of the US population and 100 million people is 30.2% of the US population.

The first booster dose got approved on Aug 12, 2021. By Dec 12, 60 million doses were administered. Do we expect the second booster to be administered less than half as many times in the same time period?

predictedYES

Note: this counts boosters, not people. The number of people will be lower if some of them received multiple boosters.

@Yev That is a really cool chart, thank you for sharing. The first booster was the exact same shot, just an additional dose, so there was no issues related to scaling distribution. Countries didn't even need to buy new stocks because they had already purchased major surpluses. This is an entirely new formulation for the new spike protein and must be manufactured (probably done already) and shipped (likely begun and ongoing) so these are not directly comparable situations. I think we will land somewhere in between 25 and 60 million.