@Avery there's a lot more fluctuations in the temperature from year to year than one would think (even if there is a clear and very worrying trend upwards). Plus La Nina came later than expected.
If anything you are showing your own bias with your comment.
@Agh the La Nina pattern was predicted well before the start of the year. That, and the forcing caused by the removal of sulphur dioxide from shipping exhaust, are why I bought in initially.
Estimate that it will be the warmest year is now >0.95 https://x.com/hausfath/status/1821952219463479656
NOAA just released their latest report, which estimates there's currently a 45% chance 2024 will be the hottest year on record. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/global-climate-202402
To have a proper estimate I forecasted the gobal temperature increase starting from 1977. Considering data before that year would compromise the accuracy of the forecast since the world has been changing really fast in the last 40 years compared to the first half of last century. My regression model (adjusted R square = 90%) forecastes a 1.05°C for 2024. Therefore, I believe next year will not be the hottest ever recorded, which is 2016 with 1.08°C.
@GiovanniGhedini Seems very wrong considering 2023 will be 0.15°+ hotter than the prior record. The highest temperature in your entire 2024-2028 table is only 0.09° hotter than 2016...
@BTE wait, so which year is this for then? I don't see a description, just 2024 in the title
@AlQuinn Yes I erased the description. There is also a 2023 market. /BTE/will-2023-be-the-hottest-year-on-re-f6c3123a520b