Who should be a guest on our new podcast Crystal Ballin'?
Jan 1
Richard Hanania

The proposal I submitted with @Wobbles to the Manifund grant project run by @ScottAlexander has been funded so I am starting to plan the episodes. Who should I invite to be guests to talk about all things forecasting and prediction market related?

Will resolve equally for the first 5 guests. Could be spread across one or more episodes.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
boughtṀ20 N/A

@Conflux haha insider trading

bought Ṁ10 of N/A

@firstuserhere ?? i run a rival podcast how would i have insider info. i definitively refute all allegations that the market manipulation podcast has installed spyware in your house

@firstuserhere Based on these bets coming immediately after the interview my guess is Saul was in cahoots with @Conflux to delay the first episode past Sept 1. Market Manipulation Podcast indeed…🧐

@BTE i did tell conflux that tom/jingyi/i were invited on (?i think? maybe? actually not sure)

BUT none of us — or at least not @JingyiWang nor I, not 100% sure about @toms — profited from the delay in crystal ballin’! if anything, we were very mildly disappointed that we weren’t on to the first one!

(please don’t worry, we totally understand, it was mainly our fault, it’s not a at all a problem, and our mild disappointment is overshadowed many orders of magnitude over by our gratitude towards @BTE for having us on at all!! thank you again :D)

@saulmunn this is very dramatically ironic

@Conflux if there’s som drama market out there, this definitely doesn’t resolve it positively

@saulmunn just for the record

I predict that "Wait, are you just saying that because there's a market for it?" will be a common question at this conference 😂

@Joshua new MM meme?!?

@Joshua “do it for the market” vs “do it for the meme”

sold Ṁ10 of N/A

I guess I've been banned from commenting on IsaacKing's market on whether COVID19 came from a laboratory, and then he's saying that I'm chickening out on another bet while I'm not able to defend myself, so that doesn't really bode well for my candidacy as a guest. Oh well, thanks for the invite Brian! Hope it goes well.

bought Ṁ10 of N/A

Honestly if someone expresses interest in being on a completely new, unknown podcast, such as @Conflux, and then they come in here and vote on themselves, I would really invite them on as a guest even if you have your first round episodes scheduled, schedule them later in the year. From having organized an over 1000 person tech conference, I think the more guests you have pre-scheduled and listed, the farther out, the better it's going to look, you just fill in that schedule as far out as possible so people know there is regular programming available on whatever basis you can keep up with. The regularity, the grind will bring people in.

@PatrickDelaney In other words, I would invite people to just offer themselves as guests right here and just accept them and get their profile built, build out the schedule. Not that you are looking for my advice, but yeah, it makes it a lot more real to people if there is an actual schedule.

@PatrickDelaney Your advice is definitely welcome! I forgot you have experience organizing events. I will DM you tonight to schedule a time for us to talk Less Than Zero Covid next week.

@PatrickDelaney I love the idea of announcing future lineup in advance. Not many podcasts do that.

@BTE Unlike an event you can start recording episodes as you start scheduling guests. You could set a release date and have like 5 weeks of episodes pre-recorded. You get that rolling 5 or 6 weeks going, then if anyone is a no-show, you take them off the schedule and replace them for that release date. The disadvantage is being less topical, but the advantage is being more operationally reliable.

I just made a bunch of binary markets on individual guests, view them in the podcast group.


Does this resolve equally to all people who are guests in 2023? Or how does it resolve

@Conflux I was thinking whoever our first guest is, but I'm not sure what Brian wants to do

bought Ṁ5 of N/A

@Conflux Lets do it equally for the first 5 guests. Could be in the first episode or spread across the first couple 2-3.

@BTE Could you add this to the description?

@Wobbles Dude, you are a co-host. You can't be a guest. Lol.

@BTE Yes I can 😡

@ForrestTaylor Best suggestion

bought Ṁ5 of N/A

@Wobbles i think you should be in charge of booking talent.