Is @Gigacasting Peter Thiel or some other member of the infamous Paypal Mafia?
16
21
แน€340
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Resolves based on my understanding of Gigacasting's true identity at the time of market close.

Get แน€200 play money

๐Ÿ… Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1แน€44
2แน€19
3แน€10
4แน€7
5แน€4
Sort by:

Do we have any evidence to even raise this above the relevance threshold?

@JoyVoid The avatar is a stock photo that is all over the internet, so we have evidence that it is probably someone who posing and not die hard MAGA. I am really just trying to figure out a way to figure out who it is. Hoping for clues, some sort of scavenger hunt for true identity or whatever. [HINT]

I have several different possible suspects for who it might be. Gigacasting trades like an insider, like look at their portfolio and you can barely find the color red for pages. They are way too good to be a casual DAU. It could be @jack. Or one of the founders. Idk, but I am gonna figure it out eventually...

@JoyVoid I recently started doing that, looking at other users trading histories, and I wish I had done it a long time ago. I hate that Metaculus hides your history and scores from other users. I wish I was more proficient with Python because bot ideas are starting to jump of the screen at me based on individual users. I get how @MichaelWheatley is making a killing off me now and honestly I don't even care, his bot allows me to make 3-5x what I would without it when I bet heavily against concensus, so if I can make his bot king the Maniverse then WOOT we both win.

@MichaelWheatley I will probably care again during the next high stakes tournament ;-)

@BTE I mean, he may also just be a troll enjoying the attention and you're just playing into his game :D

@BTE The bot didn't make a killing off you, it made a killing off the people who reverse your trades shortly after you make them: they had to go through a bot middleman who takes a generous cut.

lol, who can say where John Beshir's score would have been if the bot wasn't making him pay up extra for his shares?

@MichaelWheatley Haha, clearly then I had no clue. Very cool though. Thanks for the boost!!