Does Elon Musk blink first in the showdown with Twitter's chairman Bret Taylor?
20
20
แน€166
resolved Oct 10
Resolved
YES
Resolves YES if Musk is the first to offer a serious settlement to the game of nuclear chicken he is playing with Twitter and its Chairman Bret Taylor. For those of you unfamiliar with Bret, at least relative to your familiarity with Elon Musk, you should consider his background before you think Elon can just stiff arm and shit talk him into submission while pretending his assets are illiquid and he doesn't have any cash or other property to take from him to make him pay any judgement (like he did to the hero cave diver who he spent years ridiculing as a pedophile for no reason other than the dude didn't like his insane mini-sub - but I digress). Bret Taylor is like Mike Tyson in his prime in the realm of social media and web services. In 2003, Taylor was hired by Google as an associate product manager. In 2005, he co-created Google Maps. Taylor left Google in June 2007 to join venture capital firm Benchmark Capital as an entrepreneur-in-residence, where he and several other former Google employees founded the social network web site FriendFeed. Taylor was CEO of FriendFeed until August 2009, when the company was acquired by Facebook for an estimated $50 million. The acquisition led to Facebook adopting the "Like" button from FriendFeed. After the acquisition, Taylor joined Facebook and became CTO in 2010. In 2012, Taylor left Facebook to found Quip, a competitor to Google Docs. Quip was acquired by Salesforce in 2016. That year, Twitter announced that Taylor was appointed to their board of directors. In 2021, he became chairman of Twitter. In 2017, Taylor was named chief product officer at Salesforce. In 2019, Taylor was named president and chief operating officer at Salesforce. As COO, Taylor led Salesforce's acquisition of Slack, which closed in 2021. Taylor also led the creation of a system dubbed Customer 360 at Salesforce and started an associate product manager program at the company. In November 2021, Taylor was named vice chair and co-CEO at Salesforce. (https://www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bret_Taylor) Does Elon seriously stand a chance in court arguing this guy has been committing fraud as chairman of Twitter for like 8 years?!? Could this be the first time the Tesla Stonks get short squeezed?? Resolves NO if Twitter is the first party to offer concessions or the deal is rejected by the shareholders. (Copied from https://manifold.markets/healthgrid/does-elon-musk-blink-first-in-the-s)
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predicted YES

Seems like a YES to me based on https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/04/technology/elon-musk-twitter-deal.html and https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/05/technology/elon-musk-twitter-discount.html

In the weeks before Elon Musk declared that his bid to own Twitter was back on the table, his representatives spoke with the company several times about redoing the deal at a lower price, four people familiar with the discussions said.

Mr. Musk sought a discount of as much as 30 percent, three of the people said, a proposal that would have valued the company at roughly $31 billion. Twitter rebuffed the proposal, said the people, who requested anonymity because the talks were confidential.

In the past week, however, discussions narrowed to a discount of about 10 percent, which would have allowed Mr. Musk to pay about $39.6 billion for Twitter. Those talks ultimately did not move forward. Twitterโ€™s market cap as of Wednesday was $39.2 billion.

predicted YES

@jack Agreed.

How do you know how first offered to negotiate? I guess you'd need to wait for a negotiation to be announced and then to read the proxy statement to discover who called who first. Also, is it possible that one part asks the other to settle and they refuse and we just discover later?
bought แน€20 of NO
I think Elon will not make the first serious offer for image reasons.
predicted YES
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/13/twitters-biggest-accusations-against-musk-in-its-lawsuit.html Former Delaware supreme court judge says Twitter is in a very strong position to get specific performance judgement.
bought แน€1 of YES
Love the story!