The resolution criteria here is notably different from that of the linked Metaculus question. The Metaculus question will resolve based off of a declaration from the Federation of American Scientists, while this market resolves based of a declaration from Iran. I doubt Iran will announce it even if they enrich enough material to get a nuke.

@toms The IAEA recently inspected their facilities and the Iranians acknowledged the levels of enrichment cited by the international inspectors, which is not far from the levels needed to build a weapon. I actually added the embedded Metaculus market very recently when they updated their embeds, so it is not the source for this question.

@toms No matter who announces it, the only way to get information about enrichment is if the Iranian's allow it to be known.

@BTE That's not true, there's plenty of ways to estimate it.

Could you clarify what it would mean for Iran to announce that they have enough material for a nuke?

@toms I mean they acknowledge/confirm an estimated level of enrichment has been reached that exceeds what is necessary to develop a weapon.

Related: https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-iran-have-a-nuclear-weapon-by-3865ab28bffd

I think this is going to happen.

Short 2022, long 2023.