By the end of 2023 will Iran successfully enrich enough Uranium to assemble a nuclear warhead?
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Resolves YES if by the end of 2023 Iran announces they have enriched enough material to assemble a nuclear warhead. Resolves NO if not.

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toms avatar
Tombought Ṁ95 of NO

The resolution criteria here is notably different from that of the linked Metaculus question. The Metaculus question will resolve based off of a declaration from the Federation of American Scientists, while this market resolves based of a declaration from Iran. I doubt Iran will announce it even if they enrich enough material to get a nuke.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicts YES

@toms The IAEA recently inspected their facilities and the Iranians acknowledged the levels of enrichment cited by the international inspectors, which is not far from the levels needed to build a weapon. I actually added the embedded Metaculus market very recently when they updated their embeds, so it is not the source for this question.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicts YES

@toms No matter who announces it, the only way to get information about enrichment is if the Iranian's allow it to be known.

toms avatar
Tomsold Ṁ96 of NO

@BTE That's not true, there's plenty of ways to estimate it.

toms avatar
Tom

Could you clarify what it would mean for Iran to announce that they have enough material for a nuke?

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicts YES

@toms I mean they acknowledge/confirm an estimated level of enrichment has been reached that exceeds what is necessary to develop a weapon.

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Brian T. Edwardsbought Ṁ10 of YES

I think this is going to happen.

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Brian T. Edwardsbought Ṁ25 of YES

Short 2022, long 2023.