The National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) surveys the proportion of people who have used marijuana in the last 30 days.

Will the NSDUH figure for 2022, when released, be above 15.0%?

The market resolves YES if the NSDUH percentage of people who have used marijuana in the last 30 days for 2022 is more than 15.0%, and resolves NO otherwise.

Usage stats:

2018: 10.5%

2019: 11.9%

2020: 12.4%

2021: 13.7%

See the NSDUH Detailed Tables for each corresponding year at https://www.samhsa.gov/data/all-reports

The data for each year may not be directly comparable as the NSDUH does change their survey methodology from year to year.

I'll endeavor to close the market after the figure has been posted on the NSDUH website.