Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the date on which a gene-editing therapy designed to safely and permanently reduce human sleep requirements becomes commercially or clinically available to consumers for a total cost of $10 million USD or less (including the therapeutic agents and the required medical procedure).

To satisfy the resolution criteria, the therapy must meet the following conditions:

• Target Mechanism: The therapy must target genetic pathways scientifically associated with sleep duration or sleep efficiency (such as DEC2, ADRB1, NPSR1, GRM1, or equivalent sleep-regulating genes).

• Availability: The treatment must be legally accessible to paying patients, either via approval from a major regulatory body (e.g., the US FDA or EMA) or through a verified, legally operating commercial clinic (including medical tourism).

• Cost: The total retail or out-of-pocket price for a single patient must be publicly documented as $10 million USD or less (adjusted for inflation from 2026).

• Verification: The clinical efficacy and safety of the therapy in successfully reducing sleep needs must be validated by peer-reviewed research or reputable sources. Clinical trials where patients are not charged, unverified DIY gene-editing attempts, or therapies that fail to show measurable reduction in sleep requirements will not qualify.

Sources for Verification: The resolution date will be determined by official regulatory approval announcements, manufacturer price listings, or reporting in reputable scientific publications, such as:

• Nature (nature.com)

• Science (science.org)

• MIT Technology Review (technologyreview.com)

If a qualifying therapy is initially released at a price above $10 million, the market will resolve to the date on which the price is officially lowered to or below $10 million.

Background

Scientific interest in reducing sleep requirements has largely focused on Familial Natural Short Sleepers (FNSS)—individuals who naturally sleep only 4 to 6 hours per night without experiencing the cognitive or physiological deficits associated with sleep deprivation. Genetic studies have identified several rare, inherited mutations responsible for this phenotype, most notably in the DEC2, ADRB1, NPSR1, and GRM1 genes.

While state-of-the-art CRISPR-based gene therapies are already priced below the $10 million threshold—for example, Casgevy is priced at approximately $2.2 million—they are exclusively designed to treat severe genetic disorders. Developing gene-editing therapies for cosmetic or lifestyle enhancements like reduced sleep faces significant regulatory, ethical, and clinical safety barriers, as researchers are still evaluating potential downstream long-term risks associated with modifying these complex neurological pathways.

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