Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) issues an official report, press release, or statement by 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2029, confirming the emergence of a sexually transmitted disease (STD) caused by a novel, bioengineered pathogen.

For the purpose of this market:

• "Novel" means a pathogen not previously identified as causing human disease.

• "Bioengineered" means the WHO explicitly identifies the pathogen as having been artificially created or modified through human intervention (e.g., genetic engineering or laboratory manipulation).

• "WHO" refers specifically to the World Health Organization (https://www.who.int/).

If no such confirmation is issued by the WHO by the specified deadline, or if the WHO confirms a new disease but does not classify it as bioengineered, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

The World Health Organization periodically monitors and reports on disease outbreaks, including those with pandemic potential or unusual origins. The concept of "bioengineered" pathogens—those created or modified in a laboratory setting—is a subject of ongoing debate in biosecurity and public health policy. As of April 2026, there are no internationally recognized precedents for an STD being officially classified as bioengineered by the WHO. Traders should note that defining a pathogen as "bioengineered" relies on scientific investigations into the pathogen's genomic structure and epidemiological origin, which may take significant time to conclude.

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