Will an AI be successfully trained to play Populous The Beginning multiplayer based on bottom-up data (like video training data) by the year 2030?
40
1kṀ901
2031
69%
chance

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will World Model AIs start being used in games in early 2026 and quickly start dominating the Game Development industry?
8% chance
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
60% chance
Will an AI be able to play a type of video game that it wasn't trained on before 2026?
26% chance
Will an AI be able to play 3-person Monopoly Deal or an equivalent card game at a superhuman level by the end of 2025?
76% chance
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?
76% chance
By the end of 2025 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue?
19% chance
By the end of 2026 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue?
45% chance
Will a AAA single-player game use artificial intelligence for real-time story generation by the beginning of 2035?
90% chance
100GW AI training run before 2031?
37% chance
Will there be an AI bubble before 2030?
72% chance
Sort by:

Is there any specific interest in doing it for this game as opposed to all the other games?

Is it supposed to be hard for an AI?

@FranklinBaldo I don't see why it would be any harder than e.g. StarCraft II. Although I don't think that AI was trained on strictly bottom-up data. Certainly the controller had some intermediate layer of processing it passed through

Does the AI have to actually play the game well? Does it have to win the whole campaign?

Also this seems close to doable even now, it's more a question of whether DeepMind would care to spend the of millions of dollars needed to do so.

People are also trading

Will World Model AIs start being used in games in early 2026 and quickly start dominating the Game Development industry?
8% chance
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
60% chance
Will an AI be able to play a type of video game that it wasn't trained on before 2026?
26% chance
Will an AI be able to play 3-person Monopoly Deal or an equivalent card game at a superhuman level by the end of 2025?
76% chance
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?
76% chance
By the end of 2025 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue?
19% chance
By the end of 2026 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue?
45% chance
Will a AAA single-player game use artificial intelligence for real-time story generation by the beginning of 2035?
90% chance
100GW AI training run before 2031?
37% chance
Will there be an AI bubble before 2030?
72% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy