Will a World War II veteran live to see AGI?

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Immortality or Death by AGI?

What will be true about AGI and longevity in 2040?

Will we get AGI before WW3?

58% chance

When will the last WW2 veteran die?

2037

Will we get AGI before 2046?

85% chance

Will we get AGI before 2034?

65% chance

Will we get AGI before 2047?

86% chance

Will we get AGI before 2044?

84% chance

Will we get AGI before 2036?

73% chance

Will Noam Chomsky be alive to witness the development of AGI?

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@StochasticParrot how will AGI be determined? Manifold's AGI clock?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1333701/us-military-ww2-veterans-living-estimate/

This is possibly the youngest WW2 vet. He's currently 92. Make of that what you will https://www.kens5.com/article/news/local/i-would-do-it-all-over-americas-youngest-wwii-veteran-was-sent-to-war-at-age-14/273-ec611ab7-6a10-4bf8-b174-c129f1e039e7

predictedNO

@jonsimon To put a finer point on it, if the youngest living vet (currently 92) lived to be as old as the oldest man alive (currently 113), then that would give him 21 more years of life. That requires AGI being created before 2046, in this extremely optimistic scenario.