Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, a publicly or commercially available AI system is widely recognized by relevant experts, technical benchmarks, or industry consensus as having "comparable cyber capabilities" to the Mythos system. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

"Comparable cyber capabilities" will be assessed based on the ability of an AI system to perform automated, end-to-end vulnerability research, exploit development, and cyber-offensive operations at a performance level similar to or exceeding those demonstrated by Mythos as of April 2026. "Widely available" means accessible to the general public, developers, or enterprise customers via API, software license, or open-source release.

In the event of ambiguity regarding the capabilities of Mythos or the successor systems, resolution will rely on consensus from credible cybersecurity researchers, AI safety organizations, or major technical publications (e.g., reports from NIST, CISA, or peer-reviewed AI/security literature). If no clear consensus exists, the market will resolve based on the preponderance of evidence at that time.

Background

Stephen Casper is a researcher focusing on AI safety, robustness, and the societal impacts of advanced machine learning systems. "Mythos" refers to a capability-demonstration project or system noted for its advanced automated cyber offensive or defensive capabilities. Traders should consider the current pace of progress in automated exploit generation, the potential regulatory hurdles facing the release of dual-use cyber tools, and the technical milestones required for a system to be considered "comparable" to the performance benchmarks set by the Mythos project.

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