Will Manifold change Numeric markets to use binary CPMM? | Manifold

Will Manifold change Numeric markets to use binary CPMM?

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Ṁ880

resolved Jun 27

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NO

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Currently they're implemented using 100 DPMM buckets, which is hard to interpret and doesn't give fixed payouts. Could do 100 CPMM buckets, but that's just inferior to binary CPMM + range liquidity provisioning via uniswap v3. I think.

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Is this "by the close date", or just ever?

Better than the current implementation. Easier for users to understand.

Can this be done for Free Response markets? I've noticed the option to add liquidity only exists for Binary markets, and looking at the code it's because they are the only ones using CPMM

predicted YES

Some immediate benefits of using CPMM: - Numeric markets and binary markets could use the same codebase - This means you can sell your numeric shares! - Also, it's much easier to bet UP or DOWN on a numeric market, and have that mean something Some downsides: - To implement betting on a normal distribution, we'd have to work out some math to implement range orders https://uniswap.org/blog/uniswap-v3 . It's not clear to me how many users like betting with a distribution, tho, vs betting UP or DOWN

@Austin I think you'd want more distribution modifying tools like Metaculus has, not just mean and SD for normals, before you can get much value from betting that way. (Ofc, you can just place bets on multiple distributions to get a similar effect.) UP vs DOWN is a lot easier for newcomers; maybe UP | DOWN | CUSTOM options?

predicted YES

Thanks for asking! DPM stands for Dynamic Parimutuel, a somewhat deprecated market maker: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/DPM-b9b48a09ea1f45b88d991231171730c5 CPMM stands for Constant Product Market Maker, our main system used in YES/NO bets: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Maniswap-ce406e1e897d417cbd491071ea8a0c39

What are DPMM / CPMM?

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