Will Manifold change Numeric markets to use binary CPMM?
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100Ṁ880resolved Jun 27
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Currently they're implemented using 100 DPMM buckets, which is hard to interpret and doesn't give fixed payouts. Could do 100 CPMM buckets, but that's just inferior to binary CPMM + range liquidity provisioning via uniswap v3. I think.
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Can this be done for Free Response markets? I've noticed the option to add liquidity only exists for Binary markets, and looking at the code it's because they are the only ones using CPMM
predictedYES 2y
@Austin I think you'd want more distribution modifying tools like Metaculus has, not just mean and SD for normals, before you can get much value from betting that way. (Ofc, you can just place bets on multiple distributions to get a similar effect.) UP vs DOWN is a lot easier for newcomers; maybe UP | DOWN | CUSTOM options?
predictedYES 2y
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