Operationalizing a bet between me and Søren Elverlin, first formed the LW comments of my article "Higher salaries in AI safety". I'm wagering $4k to Soren's $1k; I believe Lightcone will receive $50k or more across all Anthropic employee donations.

This is part of a larger disagreement between Soren and I, about how much appetite there will be among Anthropic employees to donate to AI safety. (I think much more appetite, relative to Soren. To be clear, this bet mostly doesn't get at our core disagreement though).

Some notes:

• Only actively employed Ants (at time of donation) count for this bet, not ex-employees

• Only donations that end up towards Lightcone Infrastructure (or its subprojects like Lighthaven) count; donations eg made through Lightcone Commons to other charities do not.

• If Soren and I disagree on other terms, Claude Fable 5.2 can be our arbiter

I plan to ask @OliverHabryka once in a while (maybe every 3 months?) about whether this has happened.