What will be our favorite question(s) during the Mar 24th AMA?
10
1000Ṁ476resolved Mar 24
33%23%
What is your plan for abandoned markets? Market is never resolved, funds are lost? "Cancelled" acting like N/A which applied by admins if market creator disappeared? Notably https://manifold.markets/DrP/will-donald-trump-by-the-president is stuck abandoned with significant amount of manifold points.
Disclosure: I have some manifold points stick there and I have created https://manifold.markets/M/what-happens-when-market-creator-le-a60924d5a2b4 about fate of such markets
33%9%
What was the genesis story for MM. Where were you when one of you said "I got a cool idea..."
33%2%
Are you thinking of more changes to the interface to make it easier to engage with CFMM peculiarities?
5%Other
3%
How much of his workday does stevo spend pondering what math?
6%
How did you build such a strong community, including the likes of Scott Alexander for example.
0.6%
Supposing great artists steal, where do you each get your inspirations from?
3%
What's the riskiest assumption you're betting this venture on? (I.E. if 2 years from now MM has bombed, what do you think would have caused it?)
4%
Do you have an idea how to deal with "X chance" giving absurd results for very likely or very unlikely events? See for example https://manifold.markets/markets?s=most-likely
"Will 1=1 on January 1st 2023?" sits at 98% which is patently absurd. And calibrating chance for display using such control questions would in turn be problematic and lose info.
"Will at least 67,000 people in the U.K. die from nuclear war in 2022?" sitting at 0.5% looks extrasilly ( https://manifold.markets/markets?s=least-likely )
3%
Are you considering having some sort of metrics on things like calibration? Like, if, when buying something you could make a private note about how likely you actually think it is?
3%
Since the current motivation is 'fake internet points', would that be problematically interfered with if people were allowed to exchange M$ ? Like, then you couldn't say you'd earned your M$, because you could have been given it. So then maybe you'd want a second non-exchangable currency representing forecaster-reputation?
3%
Would being able to exchange M$ be problematic because you couldn't know if actual money had exchanged hands between the two parties outside of your system, thus it would effectively create a real money exchange value for M$, thus violate the 'not real money' law shelter?
7%
What is the most ridiculous thing you've seen a user do on the platform so far?
0.3%
Are you going for Breadth of covering crypto ideas (try lots of things and stick with whatever gets promising preliminary results) or Depth (fine tune each project addition before adding the next)?
1.2%
What's your plan for the issue where buying an answer and then selling it loses you mana?
27%
By revealing evidence I can move a market's price quickly. This is useful when I'm too poor to correct it myself, or when it is long-term. How else could this be incentivized?
0.0%
What are your answers to the questions you haven't answered yet in descending order of market price?
Submit any questions you might have as responses in this market. We'll aim to answer them all, and then pick our favorite question(s) as the winner! Join at 3pm PT, Mar 24 here: https://discord.gg/7sekmhnH?event=955590493931196436
Austin reserves the right to arbitrarily spit up points however I want here; though I will consult the rest of the Manifold team as well. Probably don't invest too much mana here. I'm likely to skew towards useful/helpful questions than funny ones, but feel free to ask anything.
Rehash of https://manifold.markets/Austin/what-will-be-my-favorite-questions , since it was fairly popular last time around!
Close date updated to 2022-03-24 3:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-03-24 3:45 pm
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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