What will be our favorite question(s) during the Mar 24th AMA?
10
7
Ṁ476resolved Mar 24
1D
1W
1M
ALL
33%9%
What was the genesis story for MM. Where were you when one of you said "I got a cool idea..."
33%2%
Are you thinking of more changes to the interface to make it easier to engage with CFMM peculiarities?
33%23%
What is your plan for abandoned markets? Market is never resolved, funds are lost? "Cancelled" acting like N/A which applied by admins if market creator disappeared? Notably https://manifold.markets/DrP/will-donald-trump-by-the-president is stuck abandoned with significant amount of manifold points.
Disclosure: I have some manifold points stick there and I have created https://manifold.markets/M/what-happens-when-market-creator-le-a60924d5a2b4 about fate of such markets
3%
How much of his workday does stevo spend pondering what math?
6%
How did you build such a strong community, including the likes of Scott Alexander for example.
0.6%
Supposing great artists steal, where do you each get your inspirations from?
3%
What's the riskiest assumption you're betting this venture on? (I.E. if 2 years from now MM has bombed, what do you think would have caused it?)
4%
Do you have an idea how to deal with "X chance" giving absurd results for very likely or very unlikely events? See for example https://manifold.markets/markets?s=most-likely
"Will 1=1 on January 1st 2023?" sits at 98% which is patently absurd. And calibrating chance for display using such control questions would in turn be problematic and lose info.
"Will at least 67,000 people in the U.K. die from nuclear war in 2022?" sitting at 0.5% looks extrasilly ( https://manifold.markets/markets?s=least-likely )
3%
Are you considering having some sort of metrics on things like calibration? Like, if, when buying something you could make a private note about how likely you actually think it is?
3%
Since the current motivation is 'fake internet points', would that be problematically interfered with if people were allowed to exchange M$ ? Like, then you couldn't say you'd earned your M$, because you could have been given it. So then maybe you'd want a second non-exchangable currency representing forecaster-reputation?
3%
Would being able to exchange M$ be problematic because you couldn't know if actual money had exchanged hands between the two parties outside of your system, thus it would effectively create a real money exchange value for M$, thus violate the 'not real money' law shelter?
7%
What is the most ridiculous thing you've seen a user do on the platform so far?
0.3%
Are you going for Breadth of covering crypto ideas (try lots of things and stick with whatever gets promising preliminary results) or Depth (fine tune each project addition before adding the next)?
1.2%
What's your plan for the issue where buying an answer and then selling it loses you mana?
27%
By revealing evidence I can move a market's price quickly. This is useful when I'm too poor to correct it myself, or when it is long-term. How else could this be incentivized?
0.0%
What are your answers to the questions you haven't answered yet in descending order of market price?
Submit any questions you might have as responses in this market. We'll aim to answer them all, and then pick our favorite question(s) as the winner! Join at 3pm PT, Mar 24 here: https://discord.gg/7sekmhnH?event=955590493931196436
Austin reserves the right to arbitrarily spit up points however I want here; though I will consult the rest of the Manifold team as well. Probably don't invest too much mana here. I'm likely to skew towards useful/helpful questions than funny ones, but feel free to ask anything.
Rehash of https://manifold.markets/Austin/what-will-be-my-favorite-questions , since it was fairly popular last time around!
Close date updated to 2022-03-24 3:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-03-24 3:45 pm
Get Ṁ200 play money
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🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ100 | |
| 2 | Ṁ57 | |
| 3 | Ṁ33 | |
| 4 | Ṁ12 | |
| 5 | Ṁ4 |
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James: Have some ideas in the pipeline; want to get the ability to sell shares (right now we can buy the opposite side, and it will cancel when they combine).
People want to see a sell, and we're planning on adding this. Some differences between CFMM and DPM (eg how fees are charged) and we want to bring those in line by switching DPM fees to be on volume rather than profits.
Recently switched labels on cards to show volume instead of "liquidity" or "pool" to try and make our markets more consistent.
Also: adding liquidity to CFMM or DPM. Basically - hit feature parity, and minimize differences, so you don't need to think about it!
S: Big potential failure mode: fail to expand out of our current community. Most current users have knowledge of prediction markets; want to get to a truly mass market platform; most who don't know or care about prediction markets
J: broadly agree. Another answer would be: too hard to get the network effects going such that we could reach a broader audience. Would work, but we weren't able to get the marketing to get enough content, traders; risk of the play-money (virtual currency) angle which works best with a large community; money has value because we expect to get a
A: Agreed to. Regulatory investigation could kill us the deadest,
James: A lot of it was in the Discord; linked to it from the website, just had the interest; people wanted to talk about it. Formed as soon as we launched!
Haven't had to do anything in particular; come along on it's own.
Stephen: The main thing was convincing Scott; he's done a lot in terms of blogging, attracting users
G: Could allow people to continue to trade their shares
S: Keeping market open would take away from the liquidity
Austin: Thinking of N/Aing markets where the market creator doesn't respond in eg 14 days
Martin: More fair to resolve to Prob than N/A
Stephen: If we know the creator isn't planning on coming, can manipulate the market for sure. If you're uncertain, it's better on the margin
Gurkenglas: If someone has 1000 YES, and someone has 1000 NO, both be miffed, come to an agreement, if you let them trade.
S: Downside: this is more complicated
G: Are we going to return the profit from sales made in such markets?
S: Probably! It's how N/A works at the moment. OTOH, doesn't make sense to claim profits in a market that was N/A'd
G: See every market as "assuming it resolves, what's going to be the answer", if I trade and profit, I should be judged what would have happened had they resolved; rely on consensus (what people trade in)
S: What about pure conditional markets? e.g. If russia launched nukes, etc, does it make sense to take profits?
Gurkenglas: We want to pay people to provide evidence. G can correct the price himself, without saying why
Stephen: Thought about sending tips for good comments. First make bets and capture alpha; then convince the markets through comments
G: Tried to find markets with alpha; then told John, then G could sell
A: Has that been the case for others?
Sinclair: more about social aspect
G: Spend mana to be able to gain information;
J: Also free response; also conditional markets; more structures to get people to weigh in on a decision.
G: Might not need anything else!
James: Lying on the couch, thinking about random things. The idea of how prediction markets should be structured popped into his head. One person in charge asks the question; having it be quick and simple was a good idea.
Told Stephen, but still working on old startup. So: submitted it to the ACX grant proposal. And we won!
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