What will be my favorite question(s) during the Mar 17 AMA?
8
920Ṁ838resolved Mar 17
90%27%
What do you want to see Manifold become?
10%6%
What considerations are on your minds about whether/when to open source your site code?
10%Other
1.6%
What is your favorite question during this AMA?
8%
How and why did you become an entrepreneur?
2%
What was your favorite part about working for Google? Least favorite?
3%
How should we value future generations of humans, in utilitarian terms? If we expect trillions more humans, should we make decisions mostly by the long-term effects on our descendants? How should we value alleviating temporary suffering today versus progress in science and technology?
3%
How many an hour per week of your time typically is needed for MM duties, discussions and improvements.
10%
How does the feed on the homepage work? What determines which markets it shows the user? Are there any plans to change it?
10%
How do you divvy the work between the 3 of you? (Is it just the 3 of you?)
17%
How do you rank the following: (1) allowing trading via Manifold's API, ie trading bots, (2) decision markets, (3) true range markets like Metaculus has, (4) allowing users to transfer mana to each other?
0.9%
Should people who wanna do gossip markets about their social group go for a team market or wait for a private markets feature?
0.6%
If we could buy your company with M$, how many M$ would it cost?
1.1%
The M$ internal economy question I asked in voice chat
I'm hosting a live Q&A/AMA tomorrow at 4pm! Submit any questions you might have as responses in this market. I'll aim to answer them all, and then pick my favorite question(s) as the winner! Join at 4pm PT here: https://discord.gg/JPuHas38?event=953882535836917772
I reserve the right to arbitrarily spit up points however I want here; probably don't invest too much mana. I'm likely to skew towards useful/helpful questions than funny ones, but feel free to ask anything.
Close date updated to 2022-03-17 4:50 pm
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Follow up: Isaac: How do we deal with inflation, prevent mana from flowing too much?
Stephen: Potentially remove the M$ entirely; incentives behind buying M$ work quite well; people who do something important can just pay out
Gurkenglas: if we allow people to swap on some smart contract?
S: if dollars are convertible, we run into regulatory issues? users may find ways to move money, which we do not sanction. but from our perspective, they're not convertible to cash
One thing on our radar: building a crypto platform. Make use of its own token, or denominated in USDC. Probably exist separately, but still uncertain for now
Austin: ~50/week, work most days; but it doesn't really feel like work
James: similar. even when you're not "working", always thinking about the next thing on a startup. every day of the week, more breaks on weekends; startup life is more intense than
Stephen: About the same. Early-stage startup, basically work all the time. It's enjoyable! A lot of downtime things (e.g. reading a lot of papers on market makers, stealing ideas from DeFi space) blur enjoyment and work
James: In the past, weighted by recent activity, then sorted by bet activity. Surfaces markets people are interested in betting on, and somewhat wide-ranging because people bet on random markets
Running into a problem where some problems get bet on over and over, and the market stays on the top of the feed.
Latest change: we track which markets you've seen in the feed, saving the timestamp of when you've seen something, then prefer markets that are new; then show markets that have had activity since you last saw it (e.g. newer comment); secondly, if there's a bet since we last saw it.
TLDR; trying different ways, esp thing that you haven't seen
Austin: Taking good ideas from the crypto ecosystem, and making it possible to access now; cf retro public goods and quadratic funding
Stephen: Daniel's view; Manifold is the default and most powerful forecasting platform; every news article and station links to the default blog; our platform becomes truly mass market, 100m create markets on every topic. Cycle of adoption => accuracy => adoption; becomes the most impactful forecasting site
Also: Crypto! We applied to ACX Grants for a smart contract version. We've shifted to play money, and seen it has huge advantages because it allows people to use and share, get people signed up and moving on our platform; building a real-money crypto platform is of interest
James: Both. Austin's vision is broad (including non PM ideas); more agreed with Stephen's narrower take on emphasizing on making the best forecasting platform; controversial ideas include: play money will work (take on it's own value if you can use it subsidize your own markets); you can use it to change to world by getting people to exert effort to get answers; change probabilities of markets that people are paying attention to. If markets we create become widely shared; currency can become valuable too; a way to get around the regulation of today.
FR markets are unique and new - most markets are Y/N or scalar; but there's incredible promise to this idea that we can get freeform creative responses, and get market forces to pick the most appropriate. It's still early. Could be the biggest application of our site!