If Manifold adds a market creation streak counter, will @SneakySly create 15+ new markets this month?
64%
chance
Using FUTARCHY to decide whether we ought to implement this feature. We've been discussing adding something like this on the user profile page.
Manifold must add the market creation streak counter before 5/20, otherwise this market resolves N/A.
May 2, 10:10pm: Reference to https://manifold.markets/SneakySly/will-i-create-15-new-markets-this-m
SneakySly bought M$10 of YES16 days ago
This would incentivize me to succeed!
I think a better metric could be markets with at least one non creator bet on it, perhaps called activated markets?
I agree that a streak feature might encourage too many bad markets. But I will say that the daily free markets feature has definitely encouraged me to create markets that I think are high-quality and that I was previously too lazy to make, because the markets I'm interested in tend to be high-effort to author and resolve, so having a tiny bit of motivation to do them on a specific timeframe helps me a lot. I'd be interested to see more incentives/rewards for market creators that maybe don't just come from market volume.
Yes. In contrast to bets (where more is a good thing), more bad markets drown out the good ones and reduce the overall quality of the platform!
Yev is betting YES at 83% 22 days ago
That will just encourage #FreeMarketAbuse
Yev bought M$30 of YES22 days ago
Please do not just optimize for the number of markets.