Where will Manifold invest its cash?

1.1kṀ2092

resolved Jul 23

84%68%

ADM

16%21%

Stripe

0.4%Other

0.1%

Live Oak Business Savings

1.2%

Solana

0.6%

1 Year US Treasury Bonds

1.8%

3M stock (NYSE: MMM)

0.1%

Gold (SGOL)

0.2%

Ethereum

0.0%

Mana 😂🤣

0.9%

TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities)

0.4%

💖✨💝✨invest in yourself ✨✨✨💖

0.5%

USDC on Aave

0.0%

Magic: The Gathering cards

0.0%

Celcius

0.1%

Vanguard

Meow

1.2%

give it to me

0.0%

Hire me to write code Or not hire me. I'll still shitpost for freee

0.0%

Hire my sister for cheap (she's in tiny school in Tennessee )to make art and do UX stuff. You need to do some simple CPT paperwork but she's really good at colors and a lot of fun to hang out around https://www.instagram.com/p/CTJOoPINXTX/

So Manifold is currently sitting on ~$2.6M of cash that we've received through various investors and grants. Right now, it's basically all parked inside our Stripe account. But we don't earn any interest on it... We do want to keep a reasonable amount of it in Stripe just to be able to easily pay cash, but also we could conceivably park it into some kind of interest-earning account or asset. Eg if we could earn 1% on $2m invested over the course of a year, that's an extra $20k we have for hiring people or running offsites or whatnot. Mostly, we're not looking to do active trading or spend a bunch of time optimizing our portfolio; rather I'm looking for "what are some simple things that would take us <2h/month to manage, so that we can get back to building Manifold". This market resolves to the proportion of Manifold total assets invested in each answer, as of market close.

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@ahalekelly You can end up with less money than if you had invested in treasuries, if inflation is below market expectations. But you can't lose money, assuming the TIPS yield is >= 0 (which it is currently). I bonds aren't necessarily better for this type of investment. In the long run, they are pretty similar, one of the main differences that makes them more attractive right now is the fact that the inflation rate is locked in for 6 months. But there are many other issues like the investment limit, the fact that they cannot be redeemed for 1 year, etc.

@jack Is it possible to lose money on TIPS if inflation falls below market expectations but is still positive? Series I Savings Bonds are better, but limited to 10k per individual.

ADM is very hard to google lol

https://americandeposits.com/

+1. Short-term TIPS is the closest thing to a real cash equivalent. It's actually lower risk than actual cash because that takes on inflation risk. Use an ETF such as STIP or VTIP to manage the underlying bonds for you.

https://github.com/renxida

@GeorgeVii lol

hehe

( do feel free to delete this, I posted it for the memes but was a bit tone deaf )

(The above comment was meant to refer to Ethereum. The argument for gold would be to have something that likely does OK if dollar inflation continues / gets way worse)

@TedSuzman Correct answer. Yields are positive now, so get them while you can.

Could be good to have a small portion allocated to a high-risk high-reward type thing, which is also differently correlated from the rest of your investments.

4.37% dividend yield at present, have increased dividend payouts for 64 years straight, great price right now given market conditions.

Honestly, keeping it all in Stripe is kinda nice because we just don't have to think too much about it, and it means that eg a dashboard of all of our cash inflows and outflows would be much easier to maintain. Might be worth paying Stripe a ~1% premium just for that.

@JamesGrugett That's what I thought two weeks ago. Alas...

Currently at 2.89%: https://ycharts.com/indicators/1_year_treasury_rate#:~:text=1%20Year%20Treasury%20Rate%20is%20at%202.58%25%2C%20compared%20to%202.35,long%20term%20average%20of%202.85%25.

@Austin Lol. We must be nearing the bottom for Solana, right? Time to buy in :P

I know Stephen and James are huge fanboys...

Highest APY at 0.8% on https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/small-business/business-savings-accounts - but not sure how good they are to work with. Curious if anyone has any experience with them. I'm also somewhat surprised that the highest yield is <1% on these kinds of accounts