Will the Supreme Court deem unconstitutional the Montana statewide ban on TikTok by 2026 year end?

Question

https://www.wsj.com/articles/tiktok-ban-in-montana-sets-off-first-amendment-legal-fight-5a06d701

If the SCOTUS makes a decision where the State of Montana has to meaningfully revert their recent ban on TikTok, this market resolves to YES. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.

Close date: 31st December 2026

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 4% chance (22 traders, as of Oct 2, 2026).