Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if the official Democratic nominee for President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election is a woman. It will resolve to NO if the nominee is a man or does not identify as a woman.

• Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined by the official nomination at the 2028 Democratic National Convention (scheduled for August 7–10, 2028) or the official nominee certified by the Democratic National Committee (DNC) if the selection is conducted via an alternative official process (e.g., a virtual roll call).

• Gender Identity: The gender of the nominee will be determined by their public self-identification at the time of nomination.

• Edge Cases: If a candidate is officially nominated but subsequently withdraws, dies, or is replaced after the formal conclusion of the nominating convention or official selection process, the market will still resolve based on the identity of the person who originally accepted the nomination. If the Democratic Party does not nominate a presidential candidate for the 2028 election, this market will resolve to N/A.

Background

Following the 2024 election, the 2028 U.S. presidential election represents a wide-open race with no incumbent president eligible to run. Early speculation regarding the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination includes a diverse field of potential candidates. Frequently discussed female contenders include former Vice President Kamala Harris, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, alongside male contenders such as Pete Buttigieg, California Governor Gavin Newsom, and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly.

The Democratic National Committee has scheduled the 2028 Democratic National Convention to take place from August 7 to August 10, 2028. Host city finalists include Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Denver, and Philadelphia.

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