Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if both TikTok and Bitcoin are banned worldwide by March 27, 2026. A worldwide ban means comprehensive bans are in effect across all countries or nearly all countries globally, not merely in select jurisdictions.

For TikTok: A ban must prevent the app from operating in the vast majority of countries, with no functional access available to users internationally.

For Bitcoin: A ban must prevent trading, ownership, and use across the vast majority of countries globally.

The market resolves NO if either platform remains legal and operational in any significant portion of the world by the deadline.

Background

TikTok's US operations transitioned to American-majority ownership in January 2026, averting the federal ban. 23 countries have banned TikTok worldwide so far, though Albania lifted its ban after the government determined TikTok had tightened safety measures, acknowledging that a full ban proved "impossible" due to technological hurdles.

Nine countries have implemented complete Bitcoin bans: Afghanistan, Algeria, Bangladesh, China, Egypt, Kuwait, Nepal, North Macedonia, and Tunisia. However, several nations have attempted to ban Bitcoin, including China and India, the two largest countries in the world, but none have been fully successful.

Considerations

A worldwide ban of both platforms by March 27, 2026 would require unprecedented global coordination. Bitcoin bans show limited effectiveness in segmenting technologically integrated markets, and enforcement challenges persist even in countries with formal prohibitions. TikTok's recent restructuring in the US and the technical difficulty of enforcing app bans globally make simultaneous comprehensive bans of both platforms highly unlikely within the timeframe specified.

This description was generated by AI.