Hamas has announced that they will release the Israeli hostages in the Gaza strip in exchange for all Palestinian prisoners in Israel. In April 2022 there were more than 4000 Palestinians imprisoned in Israel.
This question resolves to yes if more than 250 Palestinians are released as part of a deal to secure the hostages in Gaza by the end of the year.
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Guessing the recent YES bets were due to this news:
But I'd just emphasise the timeline - there are 11 days left in the year and the article quotes
senior Israeli official says, ‘Any deal will be difficult and will demand heavy prices. It’s still a long way off’
@chrisjbillington Ten prisoners are needed to reach 250, a single exchange is enough... (And considering how much I have already lost, the exposure is less than it seems 😅)
I now expect the current truce to end, but am not selling everything since there could be another truce before EoY. Even a one-off trade in December could push it over 250, since right now it seems to be at ~210.
@Panfilo I will bet heavily that there will not be another ceasefire/hostage deal in 2023 if this one ends.
@Panfilo With today they should reach 246 Correction, 240, unfortunately some hostages were dead.
@Panfilo Notably, it would require ~1 more day of exchanges at the established rates in order for this threshold to be crossed than it would for the 100 Israelis released threshold in the other market. So I see that market at 80% and think this market being at 54% is totally reasonable. But maybe both are wrong and everything will end tonight! I sure hope not.
@Panfilo Note that while Hamas was willing to continue the exchanges, it was not willing to continue the ceasefire (or at least, their side of it. They were happy to be able to shoot Israelis without getting shot back).
According to the current deal, this will only happen if Hamas releases 90 Israeli hostages, and the ceasefire lasts for 8 days. It's not out of the question, as I've seen reports that say there are about 100 eligible hostages in Gaza, but Hamas currently doesn't know where they all are, who holds them, and if they are alive.
@MaybeNotDepends Eg. way too low. If you are white and are saying the release of 100 Palestinians isn't significant - ask why.
@MaybeNotDepends This question resolves to yes if more than 250 Palestinians are released as part of a deal to secure the hostages in Gaza by the end of the year.
@MaybeNotDepends I guess "significant" wasn't the right word. This market is mainly meant to predict whether Israel would agree to Hamas's proposal of a mass release of prisoners in Israel. I picked the number 250 pretty arbitrarily so I could have a concrete way to resolve the market. I'll change the title to "a large number of Palestinian prisoners" if you're offended by it.
@Emanuele98 Yes, it has to be more than 250 prisoners released before the end of the year so only 150 would not count. If there are additional prisoners released later in the year it would contribute to the total though.