In 2028, will AI rank at least as high as abortion on Gallup's poll of America's most important problem?

Ṁ1kṀ14k

2029

71%

chance

ALL

Each month, Gallup publishes a poll asking Americans "what do you think is the most important problem facing the country today?" If Gallup no longer conducts this poll (or an extremely similar one) in 2028, this market will resolve to N/A.

Otherwise, I will find the average (over the 12 months of 2028) of the displayed percentages for the category most specifically referencing abortion and the category most specifically referencing AI. For the current poll, I would consider the category "advancements of computers/technology" to be referencing AI. However, if there was an explicit "AI" option I would use that one instead.

Update 2026-03-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If neither abortion nor AI has a clear category in the Gallup poll, the market resolves N/A. If only one of the two has a clear category, that one is used and the other is treated as having insufficient responses to appear, resolving based on that single category.

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I could see this market resolving YES but in an Arrow type way, like:

1%: think AI is most important problem
0.5%: think abortion is most important problem
50%: think economy is most important problem, abortion 2nd most important, don't care about AI at all
48.5%: think racism is most important problem, abortion 2nd most important, don't care about AI at all

@pietrokc good point. It's not clear abortion is even on the list, or what category it should fall into. My best guess:

Healthcare 4%

Ethics/moral/religious/family decline 3%

But it's split across two categories that also include tons of other stuff so idk how this should resolve if the numbers don't move dramatically.

@ErickBall Unfortunately the categories do shift sometimes. In a situation like this where there is no clear category for abortion or AI I would have to resolve N/A. If only one of abortion and AI appeared I would resolve to that one, since the other presumably doesn’t have enough responses to even be mentioned.

@Arky has there been a category for abortion in the past though?

@ErickBall Yes, there was an explicit “abortion” category when I first made this market.

@ErickBall The latest several months all have an abortion category, but it's not on the front page, you have to click to page two in the issues display

Do respondents to that poll give a free answer which Gallup then later categorizes? Or is it a fixed list?

If it's a fixed list, no AI option was provided as of the latest poll. If it's free response, then well under 1% responded "AI", since it doesn't show up.

Abortion does show up but as just 1%.

bought Ṁ50 YES

@pietrokc It's a free response. Not sure how they decide what categories to use but there has traditionally been an "advancement of computers/technology" category that was <0.5% until recently.