In 2024, will Gallup polling indicate that more than 0.5% of Americans believe AI is the most important problem?
In 2024, will Gallup polling indicate that more than 0.5% of Americans believe AI is the most important problem?
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740Ṁ14kresolved Apr 11
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Each month, Gallup publishes a poll asking Americans "what do you think is the most important problem facing the country today?" This market will resolve to YES if, before the end of 2024, the category most specifically referencing AI has a rounded percentage of at least 1% during any month. For the current poll, I would consider the category "advancements of computers/technology" to be referencing AI. However, if there was an explicit "AI" option I would use that one instead.
This market is an updated version of /IsaacKing/will-gallups-poll-on-americas-most
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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