In 2024, will Gallup polling indicate that more than 0.5% of Americans believe AI is the most important problem?
resolved Apr 11

Each month, Gallup publishes a poll asking Americans "what do you think is the most important problem facing the country today?" This market will resolve to YES if, before the end of 2024, the category most specifically referencing AI has a rounded percentage of at least 1% during any month. For the current poll, I would consider the category "advancements of computers/technology" to be referencing AI. However, if there was an explicit "AI" option I would use that one instead.

This market is an updated version of /IsaacKing/will-gallups-poll-on-americas-most

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bought Ṁ437 YES

"Advancement of computers/technology" is at 1% for March.

bought Ṁ10,000 YES

resolves yes

@traders I’m editing the title to be less misleading. The resolution criteria requires that there is a rounded percentage of 1% in the “advancements of computers/technology” category, which occurs when the actual percentage is greater than 0.5%.

bought Ṁ10 YES

1% is far below the Lizardman Constant — we'd get more than that many people answering the question that way no matter how few actually believe that.

sold Ṁ28 NO

@ArmandodiMatteo Even worse, the reports round anything above 0.5% to 1%

@ArmandodiMatteo Logically, the Lizardman constant should be lower when there are more than two options

@lukres I’ll edit the question to make that clear

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