MANIFOLD
Will the OpenAI/DoD deal result in meaningful negative consequences for OpenAI by the end of 2028?
5
Ṁ1kṀ1.1k
2028
19%
chance

Examples of what I would consider meaningful negative impacts:

  1. A significant drop in userbase or subscribers that seems to be connected

  2. Impactful hostile government action targeting OpenAI or Sam Altman by e.g. a Democratic controlled congress

  3. Retribution from the Trump administration because OpenAI reneged on the deal

This may resolve YES early if something significant and unambiguously negative happens.

If it is ambiguous, I will not resolve hastily and may extend the resolution deadline until I am convinced one way or the other.

Market context
US Politics
AI
OpenAI
Trump's Second Term
AI Safety
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bought Ṁ25 YES

I see a lot of people already cancelling their subscriptions to switch over to Claude. This was essentially free publicity in favor of Anthropic. If it continues I think we can expect a significant dropping. Therefore betting YES.

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