Same question from Lukas' market to increase the chances of an answer:

Unlike Maine and Alaska, Oregon is in the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. The Compact is incompatible with instant-runoff and any other forms of ranked choice voting – you can't validly aggregate ranked choice ballots and FPTP ones.

Do you know how this bill interacts with the Compact, if voters approve IRV? Does Oregon revert to FPTP for Presidential elections if/when the Compact goes into force? Or does the state leave the Compact?

Or, maybe most likely, did the people whose job is literally to think about this kind of thing simply fail to do so?

@BrunoParga

They are using the final round results for the aggregation.

(B) If the National Popular Vote interstate compact set forth in section 1, chapter 356,

Oregon Laws 2019, governs the appointment of presidential electors and the election of

presidential electors in this state is determined by ranked choice voting:

(i) The determination of which candidates for the position of presidential elector shall

be declared elected in this state shall be made in accordance with the provisions of the Na-

tional Popular Vote interstate compact; and

(ii) The “final determination” of the presidential vote count reported and certified to the

member states of the compact and to the federal government shall be the votes received in

the final round of statewide tabulation by each slate of candidates for the offices of President

and Vice President of the United States that received votes in the final round of statewide

tabulation.

@Anthem thank you!

So it still favors the duopoly, and it breaks the promise of "you can vote for your true preference" (not that the promise is true, anyway – IRV also encourages strategic voting, like FPTP).

Edit: they could at the very least aggregate their IRV count with that of other IRV states, but noooo. 🤦

I've created a market that allows forecasting by what margin the measure will pass or fail