On 25 June 2023, the Oregon House and Senate passed House Bill 2004 and referred it to the Oregon voters for approval. The measure would implement ranked choice voting for federal and statewide offices, including the president, U.S. senator, U.S. representative, governor, secretary of state, attorney general, state treasurer, and commissioner of labor and industries. RCV would be used in partisan primaries and general elections for these offices. The “final determination” of the presidential vote count reported to the NPVIC is the aggregation of the last round. [0] [1]

There have been four ballot measures related to various state-wide electoral system changes between 1908 and 2023. Three measures were defeated and one was approved [2][3]

Oregon Blue Book "Introduction and Measure Listings, 1902-2020 [PDF]

Ballotpedia Oregon Ranked-Choice Voting for Federal and State Elections Measure (2024)

This is a forecasting market. Market closes when polls close (8 PM PST)

The market will resolve to one answer based on

Margin will be determined by the percentage of voters that were for or against the measure. 

The market will resolve based on certified results from the Oregon Secretary of State. Market closes on 5 Nov 2024; market resolution may be delayed until data is released. Oregon Law requires that any ballot measure receive an affirmative majority so in case of a 50/50 tie, the measure will have failed. [0]

I do not bet on markets I create in order to avoid motivated reasoning. In the event that I am unable or unavailable to resolve the market, the market may be resolved by Manifold Mods. Any changes to the market description will be noted in the change log.