By January 2027, will there be a report from a reputable source confirming that at least three companies, that would previously have relied upon programmers, and meet a defined level of success, are being run without the need for human programmers, due to the independent capabilities of an AI developed by OpenAI or another AI organization? This is meant to be conditional on no severe regulation occurring that restricts or bans the types of AI that would have otherwise accomplished this by January 2027, although that will be a judgment call by me.

Terms

Reputable Source: For the purpose of this bet, reputable sources include MIT Technology Review, Nature News, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Wired, The Guardian, or TechCrunch, or similar publications of recognized journalistic professionalism. Personal blogs, social media sites, or tweets are excluded. 

AI's Capabilities: The AI must be capable of independently performing the full range of tasks typically carried out by a programmer, including but not limited to writing, debugging, maintaining code, and designing system architecture.

Equivalent Roles: Roles that involve tasks requiring comparable technical skills and knowledge to a programmer, such as maintaining codebases, approving code produced by AI, or prompting the AI with specific instructions about what code to write.

Level of Success: The companies must be generating a minimum annual revenue of $10 million (or likely generating this amount of revenue if it is not public knowledge).

Report: A single, substantive article or claim in one of the defined reputable sources that verifies the defined conditions.

AI Organization: An institution or entity recognized for conducting research in AI or developing AI technologies. This could include academic institutions, commercial entities, or government agencies.

Regulatory Impact: In January 2027, I will use my best judgment to decide whether the conditions of the bet would have been met in the absence of any government regulation restricting or banning the types of AI that would have otherwise replaced programmers. 

Associated charity bet with Daniel Kokotajlo discussed here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DgzdLzDGsqoRXhCK7/transformative-agi-by-2043-is-less-than-1-likely?commentId=pLJDiexP2rj3hnSov#pLJDiexP2rj3hnSov

Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely - LessWrong

Comment by Andy_McKenzie - I’m wondering if we could make this into a bet. If by remote workers we include programmers, then I’d be willing to bet that GPT-5/6, depending upon what that means (might be easier to say the top LLMs or other models trained by anyone by 2026?) will not be able to replace…