Where will I be on July 15, 2024?
Personal GoalsSwordfishGeography
Mini
7
Ṁ1.0k
resolved Jul 16
Resolved
YES
United States
Resolved
YES
California
Resolved
YES
Berkeley, CA
Resolved
YES
A place where recreational marijuana is legal
Resolved
YES
Oakland, CA
Resolved
YES
Safeway
Resolved
NO
Somewhere not in the metro area of your residence
Resolved
NO
Treasure Island
Resolved
NO
San Francisco, CA
Resolved
NO
Ingleside Community Center
Resolved
NO
Albany, CA
Resolved
NO
An airport
Resolved
NO
A county which voted for Trump in 2020
Resolved
NO
Nevada
Resolved
NO
Jail
Resolved
NO
Canada

To avoid confusion, this is an unlinked market, which will resolve YES to every well-defined geographic location in which I will be present on July 15, 2024.

For instance, if I am in Berkeley, then "Berkeley", "Bay Area", "California", and "United States" all resolve YES.

If I'm in two different places on that day, they both resolve to YES. Feel free to add answers; I'll N/A anything that's too ambiguous to easily evaluate.

Get Ṁ600 play money

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A county which voted for Trump in 2020

@bohaska I've been only in Alameda and Contra Costa counties so far, which voted for Biden by 62- and 45-point margins, respectively.

https://strava.app.link/QonnRTZKgLb

Gonna check what boundaries I crossed later tonight

looks like I just made it to Kensington, as well as Oakland. Also went to a Safeway just now!

October 15th: https://manifold.markets/AndrewG/where-will-i-be-on-october-15-2024-ca8113d29609

@AndrewG uh.. where do you intend to be on july 15?

(bringing back alpha-seeking investigative journalism to prediction markets)

fwiw, my website has my semi-live-updating location xD

But I'm currently in the Bay and don't have any particular plans to move, though I've gone to Healdsburg a lot recently

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