Will the current shortage of stimulant ADHD medication end before 2025?

On October 12, 2022, the FDA announced a shortage of Adderall, a popular stimulant medication used to treat ADHD. The shortage is ongoing and has since extended to Ritalin and Vyvanse, other stimulants used in the treatment of ADHD.

Resolution Criteria

This market applies to shortages of any drug containing one of:

  • Amphetamine (Adderall)

  • Dextroamphetamine (Adderall)

  • Methylphenidate (Ritalin/Concerta)

  • Lisdexamfetamine (Vyvanse)

Resolves YES if, at any point before January 1, 2025, the FDA Drug Shortages database contains no drug in the above list.

Resolves NO if, on January 1, 2025, the FDA Drug Shortages database still contains any drugs in the above list.

Resolves YES if the current shortage ends during 2024 and then a new one begins.

If the drugs fail to appear in the database at some point due to human error or a computer glitch, rather than an actual end to the shortage, that does not count as a YES

I will not bet on this market.

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