What will happen by the end of 2025 under President Trump's tariff policies?
25
1kṀ2152
Dec 31
13%
Trump keeps tariffs, and no recession occurs
28%
Trump keeps tariffs, and a recession occurs
35%
Trump removes tariffs, and no recession occurs
25%
Trump removes tariffs, and a recession occurs

This market asks which scenario will occur by December 31, 2025, regarding President Trump's tariff policies and economic outcomes.

Definitions:

  • Recession: Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth

  • Removal of tariffs: Tariffs reduced to well below 10% for most countries, effectively ending the trade war

The market will resolve to the option that occurs by the end of 2025. Notice that none of these scenarios have probability equal to zero and their probabilities sum up to one, so the market is complete.

Resolution will be based on official GDP data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) and tariff policies as documented by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (https://ustr.gov/).

Politics
US Politics
Trump
Trump's Second Term
Tariff
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bought Ṁ50 NO2mo

if there are two full quarters of recession before dec 31 2025, it seems unlikely trump will stick it out with the tariffs.

conversely it's not hard to believe the economy putters along for a little while and doesn't enter recession until 2026 or not at all, and in that situation the tariffs could stay or go

2mo

@B this market is complete, so there is no outcome that has probability zero. You can vote NO for the events you mentioned 😄

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