Will commercial fusion plants deliver grid electricity from seawater deuterium by EOY 2035?
8
Ṁ100Ṁ2282035
25%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will we have abundant clean energy from seawater-fusion power plants on the grid by EOY 2035?
Credible sources (CFS/DOE announcements, Bloomberg/Reuters, independent audits, or major scientific reports) confirm at least one fusion plant is grid-connected and has supplied net electricity commercially by Dec 31, 2035. Abundant clean energy” is demonstrated by the plant operating at meaningful commercial scale (>50 MW) and showing the clear path to dramatically lower energy costs.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will we get fusion reactors before 2040?
71% chance
Will we get fusion reactors before 2036?
58% chance
Will Helion deploy a commercial fusion reactor before 2040?
54% chance
Will we get fusion reactors before 2037?
62% chance
Will we get fusion reactors before 2039?
69% chance
When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?
Will we get fusion reactors before 2030?
16% chance
Will fusion power be commercially available by 2035?
29% chance
Will fusion power be commercially available by 2050?
65% chance
Will there be a fusion reactor generating electricity commercially by the end of 2035?
36% chance