JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Ray
closes Dec 31, 2049
Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power before 2050?
34%
chance
Close date updated to 2049-12-31 11:11 am
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AlexPower avatar
Alex Powerbought Ṁ10 of YESThe saying has been "fusion is 30 years away" for 50 years, but I think we've reached "fusion is only 20 years away". As an optimist, I take that to mean a 20% chance of actually getting there within 30 years.
Austin avatar
Austinbought Ṁ10 of NOInteresting question, thanks for asking! The main thing I knew about Helion is that Sam Altman invested, but I'm wondering if there's a way to more specifically profit off your belief that they are the next Theranos, especially through Manifold. Baseline, you could ask questions like "Will Helion hit X target by Y date." More interesting might be some index that tracks Helion's eg number of positive press mentions or valuation/size of next round? And then ideally find a Helion believer to take the other side of the trade.
JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Raybought Ṁ35 of NOStarting very low because D-D requires much higher temperature than D-T and we can't even break even with D-T yet and T/He3 fuels are prohibitively expensive until you solve D-D fusion. The number of neutrons produced from fusion will be nowhere near enough to breed as much T from Lithium as it consumes. Maybe excess neutrons from fission plants can will be used to produce enough T for a few reactors, but fusion is probably never going to provide a large fraction of grid power. I want Helion to succeed but based on my understanding of the physics I'm 98% confident that they're the next Theranos. They claim they'll be able to break even with D-D but nobody else has even solved D-T yet, and that's orders of magnitude easier.