The target 140 digits number: 21052172014617107677646063926649410345463917228709750506979727177113136617690917313126701354423568635959714929748446530131224218616826483383
Resolve to Yes if someone found the prime factorization and typed it out in the comment
18 digits number
20 digits number
30 digits number
40 digits number
##I will give out the Manifold prime factorization master award with a 1000 Mana prize to the first person who solved the prime factorization of the 140 digits number##
@CollectedOverSpread was awarded the Manifold prime factorization master award with a 1000 Mana prize for being the first person to factorize the 80 digits number
[Edit: The second Manifold prime factorization master award with a 1000 Mana prize goes to Thomas Kwa!]
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,270 | |
| 2 | Ṁ272 | |
| 3 | Ṁ133 | |
| 4 | Ṁ10 | |
| 5 | Ṁ7 |
The second Manifold prime factorization master award with a 1000 Mana prize goes to Thomas Kwa!
@ThomasKwa I'll send you the manalink on discord
This market made me update negatively towards prediction markets.
Very smart&famous people bet a bunch on NO without doing any basic research
I only made about M200, despite being 99% sure on a market that was several times at 92%, in large part because I have much less mana than other players (which makes me feel it's a bit play to win). I had to go around selling a bunch of "this market will resolve YES" shares to get liquidity, might have made even less than M200
There was a strong incentive for anyone that had factored this to mislead the market and publish at the last second, in to buy YES as the price went down. (See @NeonNuke placing large limit orders on YES at 51%, which apparently nobody noticed)
@Lorenzo You put in 2771 and can win 3075 for a 11% ROI
Thomas Kwa put in 9916 and can win 11186 for a 13% ROI, not counting the bounty
Looks fair to me, what exactly is the issue?
@Hei If I had 10k more mana I think I would have made >2x more profit.
Mostly the issue is that the market could have been wrong for a long time and correct at the last second and that I was surprised by some people betting NO to 80%
@Lorenzo If you're that certain you can always ask on Discord for a loan. I personally wouldn't bet too confidently unless I was going to factor the number myself. Because it's not "Is the number factorable in a week?", it's "will someone notice this market and put in the effort to factor it?".
But if you have the factorization, if the market creator is known to resolve fairly, if you're willing to buy Mana for real money to pay back your loan in the unlikely event you lose, then all of these should make it would be easy to make a leveraged bet.
@Mira I agree on being that confident only after actually factoring the number, especially since it's so cheap.
I hadn't thought of the option of taking loans and paying them back with real money, interesting! Idk if it's legal (feels like buying M on a secondary market), but for such small amounts probably doesn't matter.
@Lorenzo I think one reason this market has been so inefficient is that people don't really care that much, and are largely just in it for the fun. If this was real money I believe things would be quite different.
@levifinkelstein except they'd be equally incentivized to hide their solution until the last possible instant
2350257234998704714353832240803500578077070906045141799511743636077051*8957390578835388653570062394304446351627873417090454023727202234255733
The factorization took 3.5 wall clock hours on a 124 vcpu machine, using cado-nfs with stock settings. A summary of the cado-nfs output is here: https://pastebin.com/T2MrE4RC
@ThomasKwa Question from Discord: “Did you shell out for a cloud-based virtual machine just for this or do you just have access to that computing power on a regular basis?”
@jacksonpolack (I mean technically you could spin up a VM on a desktop PC if you really desired it. Might be commercial cloud, uni, business, homelab, whatever.)
@ThomasKwa why did you publish it so early? We could have made a bunch of mana from people betting NO.
@Lorenzo I basically think that I maximized EV for myself by publishing when I did, and even if my actions were not EV maximizing I might have justifiably done them anyway.
After the comment by Hei and observing you and others outbidding my limit orders at 50-80c, it seemed like the price would be unlikely to decline below 80c, so I wouldn't make a ton of mana. I guessed that I'd be able to buy ~2000 YES at ~86c in the next day, which is only 280 mana profit.
If someone else posted the factorization I would lose the 1k bonus plus the ~400 profit from buying YES up to 98%. The number is really not hard to factor, and by the time I posted it was already within reach on a 12-16 core machine for someone who noticed when I did.
With these numbers, if the chance of someone publishing was >20%/day, I should publish. I don't usually think about colluding with other players bc it's illegal in financial markets. Even here it's nontrivial to do and not my first thought. I thought someone who factored the number would trade + post immediately because they would face the same EV calculation I did, and this seemed higher than 20% given your position size and the fact people were using cado-nfs on this market already.
I want to maximize the enjoyment / attention ratio I get from manifold. Gaining mana is some source of enjoyment, but there's also predicting accurately, social aspects, etc. In any case trying to extract every scrap of mana from a market is not worth 5 days of attention.
@Hei Update: After doing more research, I am out.
- RSA-120 can allegedly be broken by CADO-NFS in <2 hours (https://cado-nfs.gitlabpages.inria.fr/index.html).
- The same program can allegedly factor RSA-140 in 1 day.
- Lorenzo, the biggest YES shareholder, seems to be spending a lot of mana to peg the market at 80%, which is high risk low return unless he's sure.
- Lorenzo has bet 1/4 his entire portfolio value on this market, which is also 5x his biggest bet on anything else ever.