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Should resolve yes

@HthePenguin This is taken from the resolution website simply by pressing "live," so it should count.

@HthePenguin I will wait until the numbers directly shows 3.7M on the directly link to resolve this in case something funky is going on

These stats have shown a remarkable surge in the past few days and are in course to just resolve as YES. This surge does not seem to correlate with number of YouTube views or Twitter activity reported on Social Blade. Or Google Trends.

So I have to ask whether this is a market that could, theoretically, be manipulated.

@ChrisClark isn't it just the tucker interview that came out?

@Bayesian I would assume that activity stats would lead subscriber stats if this was the cause. And that doesn't seem to have happened.

@ChrisClark to be clear, I don't fully understand this market and am just investigating something which looks odd. All help appreciated, especially if my concerns are allayed!

@ChrisClark There has been a surge in subscriber stats, caused by a surge in views stats, caused by a surge in number of videos lex has with tucker carlson. I'm confused about what you think is strange here

@Bayesian perhaps I've got this wrong. Wouldn't be the first time. We don't have view stats for the 28th and 29th, but the subscriber surge started on 26th/27th. 27th views were high but not outside recent range. Twitter activity reported on social blade only fractionally higher.

I'd be expecting much, much higher view stats when they are posted. Perhaps they will be.

@ChrisClark look at the video he put out one day ago getting more views than he had for the prev weeks worth of videos. yeah it's all just tucker, no mystery imo

@ChrisClark I'm the dumbass who betted the probability down to 4% without noticing that the Tucker Carlson interview could be posted at the end of the month

@AmmonLam what is the exact time this market will be resolved?

@diadematus I'll wait a day for the numbers on social blade to settle before resolving the market