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MANIFOLD
Who is the best human ever to exist (revised edition)
22
Ṁ975Ṁ1.6k
Jul 1
19%
Other
11%
Leonardo da vinci
8%
Peter Singer
7%
John Ronald Reuel Tolkien
5%
Martin Luther King, Jr.
5%
Jesus
4%
Plato (Aristocles)
4%
Alexander the Great
4%
John von Neumann
4%
Emperor Krishnadevaraya of the Vijayanagara Empire
3%
Jane Goodall
2%
Hildegard of Bingen
2%
Augustus Caesar
2%
Richard Feynman
1.8%
Milarepa
1.4%
Benjamin Franklin
1.4%
Joseph Stalin
1.1%
Hypatia
1%
Vitali Klitschko
1%
Julius Caesar

This market is a ranking competition in which humans are evaluated across six traits: Physical Strength, Wisdom, Creativity, Value, Intelligence, and Wealth.


Scoring System

  • I will select 12 humans with the best winning chance to rank.

  • Ranks 1 through 12 will earn 15, 12, 9, 6, 3, 0, -1, -2, -3, (-5 for #10+) points respectively.

  • An option’s overall score is the sum of the points it receives across all six trait rankings. The option with the highest score

While personal preference and subjective judgment cannot be eliminated entirely, I will make a good-faith effort to answer questions and explain how I evaluate each trait and determine relative rankings.

Inspired by: https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/who-is-the-best-living-human-physic-tQn59pSuZt

Differences from Ammon Lam's market:
1. Six traits, to more broadly represent humankind
2. Negative points for low scoring

3. Creativity allows artists and value accounts for great leaders.
4. Wisdom is purely subjective and depends on philosophical stances and general goodwill
5. IMPORTANT: dead people can participate!
6. Ambiguous entries will NOT be disqualified.

As the market is subjective, I will not trade.
Close date: Jul 1st 2026.

If there is a tie, it will resolve to 100/tied entries for each entry.
I have added all previous winners as options.
Liquidity is low to encourage new options.

  • Update 2026-05-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The 12 options with the best winning chance will be selected based primarily on percentage traded, but the creator will use subjective judgment to prevent manipulation of this selection process.

  • Update 2026-05-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Legendary/mythological figures (e.g., characters who are probably fantasy rather than historical) are disqualified from participation.

The creator has blocked themselves from betting in this market.
Market context
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Do human characters from Hindu scripture that have divine ancestry qualify or would you consider them demigods rather than human and/or metaphorical rather than actually existing? E.g. Arjuna, Vaivasvata Manu, members of the Saptarshi etc.

@TheAllMemeingEye interesting. i believe the exact character did not exist but it was more metaphorical and as such, i prefer to stick to really existing humans in this market

you forgot to add knowingant

This dude was an absolute beast. Some relevant extracts from the intro of his wiki article (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krishnadevaraya)

Strength:

Portuguese travellers Domingo Paes and Duarte Barbosa […] described him as […] an exceptional military commander who personally led campaigns and tended to wounded soldiers […] He became the dominant ruler of the Indian peninsula by defeating the sultans of Bijapur, Golconda, the Bahmani Sultanate, and the Gajapatis of Odisha, making him one of the most powerful Hindu monarchs in Indian history.

Wealth:

he presided over the empire at its political and cultural zenith […] he ruled the largest and most powerful empire in India during his time. […] When the Mughal emperor Babur surveyed the rulers of India, he considered Krishnadevaraya the most powerful, ruling over the most extensive empire in the subcontinent […] Krishnadevaraya was conferred with several honorific titles such as […] "Lord of the Jewelled Throne of Karnataka"

Intelligence:

On many occasions, the king changed battle plans abruptly, turning a losing battle into victory. […] Portuguese travellers Domingo Paes and Duarte Barbosa […] described him as an able administrator and an exceptional military commander

Creativity:

His reign is also regarded as a golden age of Telugu literature, and he was a distinguished patron of arts and scholarship. Krishnadevaraya himself composed the Telugu poetic work Amuktamalyada, celebrated for its literary and devotional value.

Personal priors lower, but expect to be overpriced, so market dynamics reasons won't bet against

@JussiVilleHeiskanen FYI, I am a Hindu, so I would probably put him pretty low on wisdom.

@100Anonymous since you also said that you subscribe to utilitarianism, does that mean the branch of Hinduism you follow doesn't prescribe dogma for morality the way Abrahamic religions do, and instead just describes the spiritual nature of the world? Or alternatively, does the dogma just happen to align very well with utilitarianism?

My apologies for my cultural ignorance, Hinduism was never covered even a tiny bit when I was at school, so all my knowledge comes from Western pop culture, Wikipedia, and like the very first verse of the Rigveda 😅

@TheAllMemeingEye It does prescribe morality, but you can't really consider it dogma, as people rarely force you to accept that view, and usually it is considered okay to have any reasonable (i.e not like torturing the entire world) view on morality.

@Jack1 wonder how his commisions compare with Musk's DoD contracts allowing for inflation

bought Ṁ10 YES

@JussiVilleHeiskanen excellent pick. Accomplished wrestler, wealthy aristocrat, obviously a creative genius and arguably pretty wise

How are you defining wisdom vs intelligence?

@TheAllMemeingEye I explained what is wisdom in the description, but basically wisdom is my subjective opinion on their philosophical takes and general good will, intelligence is raw IQ or some other measures of intelligence.

@100Anonymous fair enough 👍

For the record what are your own personal beliefs regarding normative ethics, applied ethics, politics, metaphysics, epistemics etc?

@TheAllMemeingEye politically, I am centre-right. I believe in logical epistemology, where one uses all the truthful available information to provide a logical conclusion. I am unsure what normative/applied ethics is

@TheAllMemeingEye also, if you saw an edited version of that comment, it was me pressing the enter button by accident.

@100Anonymous My layperson understanding:

  • Normative ethics is what is fundamentally good e.g. virtue ethics (having good traits), deontology/duty ethics (doing good actions), consequentialism (causing good outcomes), existentialism/absurdism/nihilism (no such thing as objective good), theism (following the will of god(s)) etc.

  • Applied ethics is what we should specifically do in our daily lives to achieve what is good e.g. Aristotle's nicomachean ethics, Kantian deontology, Jeremy Bentham's utilitarianism, Nietzsche's nihilism, Roman Catholic Christianity, Theravada Buddhism, hedonistic egoism etc.

@TheAllMemeingEye in normative ethics, I would argue that Virtue ethics, duty ethics, and consequentialism are all important. Applied ethics-wise, I only really subscribe to utilitarianism.

@100Anonymous @TheAllMemeingEye you know you guys are allowed to Google it?

@MachiNi Google sucks these days unfortunately 😔

@TheAllMemeingEye wikipedia or AI will tell you what these words mean

bought Ṁ1 NO

Just to clarify, "best winning chance" meaning largest percentages as traded?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen I think percentage traded will be a major factor, but not the entire thing. Someone could use that to manipulate the market. I'll use my subjective opinion in these cases. Otherwise, yes.

I would add Diomedes, but not only is he dead, he is also legendary.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen you can add dead people!

@100Anonymous Yes, but he isn't likely even dead, just fantasy. Though you never know, they thought Troy didn't exist either, before Schliemann. But lesser characters in legend can be just additions for flavor to real historical tales.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen oh, okay. If he is probably fantasy, then I would say he is disqualified.

bought Ṁ8 NO

@100Anonymous Well, his main qualification besides fucking over in clever trade for a magic shield, was being strong enough to be able to injure a god.