Resolution to:
100% if SBF are extradited and physically arrives US before Dec 20th, 2022
80% if SBF are extradited and physically arrives US before Dec 31th, 2022
60% if SBF are extradited and physically arrives US before Jan 31th, 2023
40% if SBF are extradited and physically arrives US before Feb 31th, 2023
20% if SBF are extradited and physically arrives US before Mar 31th, 2023
0% if SBF are not extradited and physically arrives US before Apr 31th, 2023
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ71 | |
| 2 | Ṁ44 | |
| 3 | Ṁ36 | |
| 4 | Ṁ22 | |
| 5 | Ṁ21 |
@Ammon Lam https://nypost.com/2022/12/22/sam-bankman-fried-released-on-record-250m-bond/ includes video of him leaving after being released on $250m bond in New York. It would appear he was extradited and has physically arrived. This should resolve.
https://nypost.com/2022/12/21/sam-bankman-fried-handed-over-to-us-authorities-heading-to-ny/ He's landed in New York. This should resolve to 80%.
Arbitration opportunity with https://manifold.markets/morewings/will-sbf-return-to-the-us-by-the-en. That market at 50% = this market at 80%.