When will SBF be extradited to the US? (before Dec 31th, 2022?)
61
18k
resolved Dec 23
Resolved as
20%

Resolution to:

100% if SBF are extradited and physically arrives US before Dec 14th, 2022
80% if SBF are extradited and physically arrives US before Dec 16th, 2022

60% if SBF are extradited and physically arrives US before Dec 18th, 2022

40% if SBF are extradited and physically arrives US before Dec 20th, 2022

20% if SBF are extradited and physically arrives US before Dec 25th, 2022

0% if SBF are not extradited before Dec 31th, 2022

[Edit: 10% if SBF are extradited and physically arrives US between Dec 25th-30th]

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predicted NO

@Ammon Lam: Released on $250M bond, in New York. https://nypost.com/2022/12/22/sam-bankman-fried-released-on-record-250m-bond/ includes video of him leaving a new york building. Can we resolve this yet?

Offer 1800 NO @ 20

predicted NO

Should the final resolution case be rewritten for clarity? It seems clear from context and intent but I'd suggest:

0% if SBF are not extradited and physically arrives US before Dec 31th, 2022

=>

0% if SBF is not extradited to the US before Dec 31th, 2022

Otherwise as stated it seems a little wonky in the case where he is extradited but after December 31st.

@EdwardKmett Yes you're right. I also saw the problem with the unclear resolution if the extradition happened between Dec 25 and Dec 31th....

Will try to make better resolution criteria in the future

predicted NO

@AmmonLam Sorry, I don't think I understand: How do you currently plan to resolve the market if it happens between Dec 25 and Dec 31?

@StevenK Edit: 10% if SBF are extradited and physically arrives US between Dec 25th-31st

predicted NO

@AmmonLam And does "before" mean "before and including"?

predicted YES

@StevenK before doesnt include the day
[Edit: 10% if SBF are extradited and physically arrives US between Dec 25th-30th]

(I now see how much trouble it would cause if I didn't carefully check my resolution criteria before publishing the market)